Arizona vs. United States
Comparative Trends Analysis:
Gross Domestic Product Growth and Change, 1977-2019
Introduction
Arizona:
2019 GDP = $366,190M
2019 Percent of U.S. = 1.7%
U.S.:
2019 GDP = $21,427,690M
Nationally, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is widely regarded as the foremost blue-chip barometer for tracking and calibrating the economic performance of the economy nationwide. Like its closely followed national counterpart, the GDP of the state of Arizona is the most comprehensive measure of output of all goods and services produced by labor and property located within Arizona. It is a market valuation of the goods and services-both private and public-produced within a state economy.
Unlike the widely and frequently reported employment and job numbers that measure labor as one of the units of input into production, GDP is a valuation of the output. Also, while State Personal Income is representative of the "purchasing power" of those that reside within a state, think of Gross Domestic Product as representative of the "producing power" of that state.
For a more detailed and technical explanation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State compiled by the Regional Product Branch of Bureau of Economic Analysis please refer to the July 2013 Survey of Current Business article, (pp. 115-120).

BEA: Definition

GDP by state is the state counterpart of the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP), the Bureau's featured and most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP by state is derived as the sum of the GDP originating in all the industries in a state.

The statistics of real GDP by state are prepared in chained (2012) dollars. Real GDP by state is an inflation-adjusted measure of each state's gross product that is based on national prices for the goods and services produced within that state. The statistics of real GDP by state and of quantity indexes with a base year of 2012 were derived by applying national chain-type price indexes to the current-dollar GDP-by-state values for the 64 detailed NAICS-based industries for 1997 forward.

The chain-type index formula that is used in the national accounts is then used to calculate the values of total real GDP by state and of real GDP by state at more aggregated industry levels. Real GDP by state may reflect a substantial volume of output that is sold to other states and regions. To the extent that a state's output is produced and sold in national markets at relatively uniform prices (or sold locally at national prices), real GDP by state captures the differences across states that reflect the relative differences in the mix of goods and services that the states produce. However, real GDP by state does not capture geographic differences in the prices of goods and services that are produced and sold locally.

United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Product Division.
BEA News Release (GDP by State). 2013. Web.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm.

BEA: Relation of GDP by state to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

An industry's GDP by state, or its value added, in practice, is calculated as the sum of incomes earned by labor and capital and the costs incurred in the production of goods and services. That is, it includes the wages and salaries that workers earn, the income earned by individual or joint entrepreneurs as well as by corporations, and business taxes such as sales, property, and Federal excise taxes that count as a business expense.

GDP is calculated as the sum of what consumers, businesses, and government spend on final goods and services, plus investment and net foreign trade. In theory, incomes earned should equal what is spent, but due to different data sources, income earned, usually referred to as gross domestic income (GDI), does not always equal what is spent (GDP). The difference is referred to as the "statistical discrepancy."

Starting with the 2004 comprehensive revision, BEA's annual industry accounts and its GDP-by-state accounts allocate the statistical discrepancy across all private-sector industries. Therefore, the GDP-by-state statistics are now conceptually more similar to the GDP statistics in the national accounts than they had been in the past.

U.S. real GDP by state for the advance year, 2012, may differ from the Annual Industry Accounts' GDP by industry and, hence NIPA (National Income and Product Account) GDP, because of different sources and vintages of data used to estimate GDP by state and NIPA GDP. For the revised years of 2009-2011, U.S. GDP by state is nearly identical to GDP by industry except for small differences resulting from the GDP-by-state accounts' exclusion of overseas Federal military and civilian activity (because it cannot be attributed to a particular state). The GDP-by-industry statistics are identical to those from the 2012 annual revision of the NIPAs, released in July 2012. However, because of revisions since July 2012, GDP in the NIPAs may differ from U.S. GDP by state.

United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Product Division.
BEA News Release (GDP by State). 2013. Web.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm.

Arizona Gross Domestic Product, 1978-2019
Current vs. Chained 2012 Dollars (Millions)
Arizona Gross Domestic Product, 1978-2019
Current vs. Chained 2012 Dollars (Millions)
Figure 1.
Figure 1 depicts Arizona's annual gross domestic product over 1978-2019 in current and constant (chained 2012) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real total good and services output of Arizona over time.
When measured in current dollars, Arizona's GDP increased 1,473.1%, from $23,279M in 1978 to $366,190M in 2019. When measured in constant 2012 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 400.5%, from $64,216M in 1978 to $321,432M in 2019.
Real Gross Domestic Product Indices (1977=100): 1977-2019
Real Gross Domestic Product Indices (1977=100): 1977-2019
Figure 2.
Figure 2 shows Arizona's real gross domestic product growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real gross domestic product in 1977 as a base figure of 100, and the real gross domestic products in later years as a percentage of the 1977 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real gross domestic product growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
Arizona's overall real GDP growth was 452.9% over 1977-2019 outpaced the United States' increase of 203.1%.
Gross Domestic Product as a Percent of the United States Total: 1977-2019
Gross Domestic Product as a Percent of the United States Total: 1977-2019
Figure 3.
Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the gross domestic product growth of Arizona is to trace its individual percentage contributions to the United States' total gross domestic product over time, as shown in Figure 3. A rising share means a region's gross domestic product grew faster, or declined less, than the United States' gross domestic product, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.
In 1977, Arizona's GDP totaled 0.99% of the United States' GDP, while in 2019 it comprised 1.71% thereby yielding a +0.72% share-shift.
   
 
Gross Domestic Product Share-Shift
2019 vs. 1977
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2019
vs.
1977
+0.72%
=
1.71%
-
0.99%
 
   
Arizona Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change, 1978-2019
Arizona Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change, 1978-2019
Figure 4.
Figure 4 highlights the short-run pattern of Arizona's real gross domestic product growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1978-2019. The average annual percent change for the entire 42-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, Arizona's real GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.23% over 1978-2019. The state posted its highest growth in 1984 (10.75%) and posted its lowest growth in 2009 (-8.07%). In 2019, Arizona's real GDP grew by 3.12%
Arizona Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1978-2019
Arizona Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1978-2019
Figure 5.
Figure 5 again traces the annual percent change in Arizona's real gross domestic product since 1978, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2019.
During the 1980s, Arizona's annual real GDP growth rate averaged 4.21%. It averaged 6.55% in the 1990s, 2.66% during the 2000s, and 2.34% thus far this decade (2010 to 2019).
Real Gross Domestic Product Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Real Gross Domestic Product Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 6.
Figure 6 compares the decade average growth rates for Arizona noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for the nation.
Relative to nationwide real gross domestic product growth trends, Arizona exceeded the nation in the 1980s (4.21% vs. 2.94%), led the nation during the 1990s (6.55% vs. 3.33%), outgained the nation throughout the 2000s (2.66% vs. 1.91%), and recorded above the nation over 2010-2019 (2.34% vs. 2.29%).

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Arizona:
Gross Domestic Product, 1977-2019
 
1977
 
19,609
0.217
58,134
100.0
N
0.99
1978
 
23,279
0.239
64,216
110.5
10.46
1.04
1979
 
27,495
0.262
70,257
120.9
9.41
1.10
1980
 
30,764
0.270
72,438
124.6
3.10
1.13
1981
 
34,269
0.278
74,453
128.1
2.78
1.12
1982
 
35,794
0.271
72,702
125.1
-2.35
1.11
1983
 
39,774
0.286
76,857
132.2
5.72
1.15
1984
 
46,135
0.317
85,121
146.4
10.75
1.20
1985
 
50,709
0.337
90,543
155.7
6.37
1.23
1986
 
55,881
0.357
95,887
164.9
5.90
1.29
1987
 
60,047
0.372
99,869
171.8
4.15
1.29
1988
 
64,945
0.390
104,639
180.0
4.78
1.29
1989
 
67,896
0.393
105,568
181.6
0.89
1.27
1990
 
70,632
0.397
106,396
183.0
0.78
1.25
1991
 
73,358
0.398
106,839
183.8
0.42
1.26
1992
 
82,682
0.439
117,707
202.5
10.17
1.34
1993
 
89,300
0.461
123,749
212.9
5.13
1.38
1994
 
100,374
0.506
135,728
233.5
9.68
1.45
1995
 
109,906
0.544
146,048
251.2
7.60
1.51
1996
 
119,530
0.587
157,585
271.1
7.90
1.54
1997
 
132,418
0.628
168,551
289.9
6.96
1.54
1998
 
143,392
0.683
183,138
315.0
8.65
1.58
1999
 
155,345
0.738
198,096
340.8
8.17
1.61
2000
 
164,612
0.775
207,793
357.4
4.90
1.61
2001
 
171,474
0.793
212,656
365.8
2.34
1.62
2002
 
179,413
0.817
219,311
377.3
3.13
1.64
2003
 
192,751
0.870
233,342
401.4
6.40
1.68
2004
 
205,421
0.907
243,246
418.4
4.24
1.68
2005
 
228,231
0.981
263,061
452.5
8.15
1.75
2006
 
248,231
1.034
277,288
477.0
5.41
1.80
2007
 
262,322
1.062
284,907
490.1
2.75
1.82
2008
 
259,367
1.034
277,477
477.3
-2.61
1.76
2009
 
243,929
0.951
255,081
438.8
-8.07
1.69
2010
 
248,210
0.960
257,485
442.9
0.94
1.66
2011
 
257,948
0.981
263,211
452.8
2.22
1.66
2012
 
268,289
1.000
268,289
461.5
1.93
1.66
2013
 
275,199
1.007
270,149
464.7
0.69
1.64
2014
 
284,430
1.020
273,677
470.8
1.31
1.62
2015
 
297,141
1.045
280,230
482.0
2.39
1.63
2016
 
311,091
1.078
289,230
497.5
3.21
1.66
2017
 
327,496
1.116
299,406
515.0
3.52
1.68
2018
 
348,297
1.162
311,706
536.2
4.11
1.69
2019
 
366,190
1.198
321,432
552.9
3.12
1.71
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
March 2020
REAP_PI_SA1400_2000_PN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
United States:
Gross Domestic Product, 1977-2019
 
1977
 
1,986,408
0.388
6,291,988
100.0
N
1978
 
2,243,230
0.409
6,628,106
105.3
5.34
1979
 
2,489,417
0.422
6,827,700
108.5
3.01
1980
 
2,713,933
0.422
6,827,222
108.5
-0.01
1981
 
3,057,318
0.433
7,012,547
111.5
2.71
1982
 
3,211,370
0.427
6,922,469
110.0
-1.28
1983
 
3,445,372
0.440
7,120,968
113.2
2.87
1984
 
3,853,668
0.471
7,628,882
121.2
7.13
1985
 
4,126,664
0.490
7,933,291
126.1
3.99
1986
 
4,340,813
0.500
8,103,923
128.8
2.15
1987
 
4,649,020
0.522
8,451,430
134.3
4.29
1988
 
5,053,003
0.549
8,899,168
141.4
5.30
1989
 
5,366,080
0.562
9,095,858
144.6
2.21
1990
 
5,651,747
0.570
9,232,383
146.7
1.50
1991
 
5,842,665
0.569
9,217,917
146.5
-0.16
1992
 
6,167,644
0.586
9,497,072
150.9
3.03
1993
 
6,467,698
0.598
9,690,657
154.0
2.04
1994
 
6,912,844
0.626
10,136,561
161.1
4.60
1995
 
7,299,372
0.647
10,485,330
166.6
3.44
1996
 
7,749,965
0.676
10,947,942
174.0
4.41
1997
 
8,577,552
0.711
11,521,938
183.1
5.24
1998
 
9,062,817
0.743
12,038,283
191.3
4.48
1999
 
9,630,663
0.779
12,610,491
200.4
4.75
2000
 
10,252,347
0.811
13,130,987
208.7
4.13
2001
 
10,581,822
0.819
13,262,079
210.8
1.00
2002
 
10,936,418
0.833
13,493,064
214.4
1.74
2003
 
11,458,246
0.857
13,879,129
220.6
2.86
2004
 
12,213,730
0.889
14,406,382
229.0
3.80
2005
 
13,036,637
0.921
14,912,509
237.0
3.51
2006
 
13,814,609
0.947
15,338,257
243.8
2.85
2007
 
14,451,860
0.965
15,626,029
248.3
1.88
2008
 
14,712,845
0.963
15,604,687
248.0
-0.14
2009
 
14,448,932
0.939
15,208,834
241.7
-2.54
2010
 
14,992,052
0.963
15,598,753
247.9
2.56
2011
 
15,542,582
0.978
15,840,664
251.8
1.55
2012
 
16,197,007
1.000
16,197,007
257.4
2.25
2013
 
16,784,851
1.018
16,495,369
262.2
1.84
2014
 
17,527,258
1.044
16,912,038
268.8
2.53
2015
 
18,224,780
1.075
17,403,843
276.6
2.91
2016
 
18,715,040
1.092
17,688,890
281.1
1.64
2017
 
19,519,424
1.118
18,108,082
287.8
2.37
2018
 
20,580,223
1.151
18,638,164
296.2
2.93
2019
 
21,427,690
1.178
19,073,056
303.1
2.33
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
March 2020
REAP_PI_SA1400_2000_PN
 
   
Copyright © 2020. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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