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 Outline of Analysis
| Florida vs. Washington Comparative Trends Analysis: Per Capita Personal Income Growth and Change, 1958-2020 Introduction  Florida: 2020 PCI = $55,675 2020 Rank = #26 Washington: 2020 PCI = $67,126 2020 Rank = #7 Per Capita Income (PCI) is one of the most widely used indicators for gauging the economic performance and changing fortunes of local economies. It is used as a yardstick to assess the economic well being of a region's residents and the quality of consumer markets. It serves as a barometer for calibrating the economic performance of a region over time and to judge differences in relative economic prosperity between regions. Shifting trends in local per capita income growth have important social and political ramifications and significant implications in formulating local economic development strategies and initiatives. Data Definition: Personal income is the income that is received by persons from all sources. It is calculated as the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and personal current tranfer receipts, less contributions for government social insurance. This measure of income is calculated as the personal income of the residents of a given area divided by the resident population of the area. In computing per capita personal income, BEA uses the Census Bureau's annual midyear population estimates. Personal income is measured as a flow throughout the year, while the measurement of population is at one point in mid-year. Therefore, per capita income is distorted if a significant change in population occurs during the year. For smaller states in particular, per capita income in any given year may be exceptionally high or low for the short run because of unusual local conditions, such as a bumper crop, a catastrophe, or a major construction project as the building of a dam or nuclear power plant. Farm incomes are notorious for being especially volatile year-to-year, owing to changing weather, commodity market conditions, and alterations in government programs. Therefore, the per capita income of farm-dependent states may exhibit sharp fluctuations over time. The presence of large institutional populations--such as residents attending a local college or the residents of a local prison or state mental institution--can significantly lower the per capita income estimates of an area. Such results may not reflect the relative economic well being of the non-institutional population and may mislead if care is not given to their interpretation. Florida Per Capita Personal Income, 1959-2020 Current vs. Constant Dollars  Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts Florida's annual per capita personal income over 1959-2020 in current and constant (2012) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of Florida over time. When measured in current dollars, Florida's per capita personal income increased 2,562.7%, from $2,091 in 1959 to $55,675 in 2020. When measured in constant 2012 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 287.2%, from $12,926 in 1959 to $50,056 in 2020. Real Per Capita Personal Income, 1958-2020  Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Florida's and Washington's annual real per capita personal income for the period 1958-2020 to illustrate real per capita personal income patterns over time. During this 63-year period, Florida's real per capita personal income rose from $12,340 in 1958 to $50,056 in 2020, for a net gain of $37,716, or 305.6%. In comparison, Washington's real per capita personal income increased from $14,907 in 1958 to $60,352 in 2020, for a net gain of $45,445, or 304.9%. Florida's real per capita personal income ranked 26th among the 51 states in 2020, Washington's ranked 7th. In addition, the United States' real per capita personal income increased from $13,552 in 1958 to $53,504 in 2020, for a net gain of $39,952, or 294.8%. Real Per Capita Personal Income Indices (1958=100): 1958-2020  Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Florida's real per capita personal income growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Washington, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real per capita personal income in 1958 as a base figure of 100, and the real per capita personal incomes in later years as a percentage of the 1958 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real per capita personal income growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Florida's overall real per capita personal income growth was 305.6% over 1958-2020 outpaced Washington's increase of 304.9%, and topped the United States' increase of 294.8%. Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 1958-2020  Figure 4. Figure 4 displays the trends for per capita personal income relative to the national average by tracing Florida and Washington per capita personal income as a percent of the national average over 1958-2020. In 1958, Florida's per capita personal income amounted to 91.1% of the national average; in 2020, it approximated 93.6%. Similarly, in 1958, Washington's per capita personal income totaled 110.0% of the national average; in 2020, it consisted of 112.8%. Florida Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change, 1959-2020  Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Florida's real per capita personal income growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1959-2020. The average annual percent change for the entire 62-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Florida's real per capita personal income grew at an annual rate of 2.32% over 1959-2020. The state posted its highest growth in 1969 (7.40%) and posted its lowest growth in 2009 (-6.29%). In 2020, Florida's real per capita personal income grew by 3.75% Florida Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1959-2020  Figure 6. Over the past six decades some states have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in Florida's real per capita personal income since 1959, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020. During the 1960s, Florida's annual real per capita personal income growth rate averaged 3.88%. It averaged 2.50% throughout the 1970s, 2.75% during the 1980s, 1.46% during the 1990s, 0.79% during the 2000s, 2.13% in the 2010s, and 3.75% thus far this decade (2020). Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade  Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Florida noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Washington and the nation. As the chart reveals, Florida's average annual real per capita personal income growth registered above Washington's average in the 1960s (3.88% vs. 3.37%), recorded under Washington's average throughout the 1970s (2.50% vs. 2.53%), led Washington's average in the 1980s (2.75% vs. 1.42%), lagged Washington's average throughout the 1990s (1.46% vs. 2.63%), lagged Washington's average in the 2000s (0.79% vs. 0.89%), and lagged Washington's average over the 10 year period of the last decade, 2010-2019 (2.13% vs. 2.65%). Thus far in 2020, Florida's growth has recorded under Washington's average (3.75% vs. 5.27%). Finally, relative to nationwide real per capita personal income growth trends, Florida outgained the nation throughout the 1960s (3.88% vs. 3.49%), exceeded the nation in the 1970s (2.50% vs. 2.37%), registered above the nation in the 1980s (2.75% vs. 2.20%), posted below the nation in the 1990s (1.46% vs. 2.04%), fell under the nation throughout the 2000s (0.79% vs. 1.08%), and surpassed the nation over 2010-2020 (2.13% vs. 2.00%). Thus far in 2020, growth for Florida has amounted to less than the national average (3.75% vs. 4.93%).
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