 Outline of Analysis
| Florida vs. Washington Comparative Trends Analysis: Per Capita Personal Income Growth and Change, 1958-2015 Introduction  Florida: 2015 PCI = $44,429 2015 Rank = #29 Washington: 2015 PCI = $51,898 2015 Rank = #13 Per Capita Income (PCI) is one of the most widely used indicators for gauging the economic performance and changing fortunes of local economies. It is used as a yardstick to assess the economic well being of a region's residents and the quality of consumer markets. It serves as a barometer for calibrating the economic performance of a region over time and to judge differences in relative economic prosperity between regions. Shifting trends in local per capita income growth have important social and political ramifications and significant implications in formulating local economic development strategies and initiatives. BEA Data Definition: Personal income is the income that is received by persons from all sources. It is calculated as the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and personal current tranfer receipts, less contributions for government social insurance. This measure of income is calculated as the personal income of the residents of a given area divided by the resident population of the area. In computing per capita personal income, BEA uses the Census Bureau's annual midyear population estimates. Personal income is measured as a flow throughout the year, while the measurement of population is at one point in mid-year. Therefore, per capita income is distorted if a significant change in population occurs during the year. For smaller states in particular, per capita income in any given year may be exceptionally high or low for the short run because of unusual local conditions, such as a bumper crop, a catastrophe, or a major construction project as the building of a dam or nuclear power plant. Farm incomes are notorious for being especially volatile year-to-year, owing to changing weather, commodity market conditions, and alterations in government programs. Therefore, the per capita income of farm-dependent states may exhibit sharp fluctuations over time. The presence of large institutional populations--such as residents attending a local college or the residents of a local prison or state mental institution--can significantly lower the per capita income estimates of an area. Such results may not reflect the relative economic well being of the non-institutional population and may mislead if care is not given to their interpretation. Florida Per Capita Personal Income, 1958-2015 Current vs. Constant Dollars  Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts Florida's annual per capita personal income over 1958-2015 in current and constant (2009) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of Florida over time. When measured in current dollars, Florida's per capita personal income increased 2,165.4%, from $1,961 in 1958 to $44,429 in 2015. When measured in constant 2009 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 251.5%, from $11,539 in 1958 to $40,563 in 2015. Real Per Capita Personal Income, 1958-2015  Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Florida's and Washington's annual real per capita personal income for the period 1958-2015 to illustrate real per capita personal income patterns over time. During this 58-year period, Florida's real per capita personal income rose from $11,539 in 1958 to $40,563 in 2015, for a net gain of $29,023, or 251.5%. In comparison, Washington's real per capita personal income advanced from $13,877 in 1958 to $47,381 in 2015, for a net gain of $33,504, or 241.4%. Florida's real per capita personal income ranked 29th among the 51 states in 2015, Washington's ranked 13th. In addition, the United States' real per capita personal income increased from $12,726 in 1958 to $43,925 in 2015, for a net gain of $31,198, or 245.1%. Real Per Capita Personal Income Indices (1958=100): 1958-2015  Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Florida's real per capita personal income growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Washington, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real per capita personal income in 1958 as a base figure of 100, and the real per capita personal incomes in later years as a percentage of the 1958 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real per capita personal income growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Florida's overall real per capita personal income growth was 251.5% over 1958-2015 outpaced Washington's increase of 241.4%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 245.1%. Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 1958-2015  Figure 4. Figure 4 portrays the trends for per capita personal income relative to the national average by tracing Florida and Washington per capita personal income as a percent of the national average over 1958-2015. In 1958, Florida's per capita personal income amounted to 90.7% of the national average; in 2015, it approximated 92.3%. Similarly, in 1958, Washington's per capita personal income totaled 109.0% of the national average; in 2015, it consisted of 107.9%. Florida Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change, 1959-2015  Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Florida's real per capita personal income growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1959-2015. The average annual percent change for the entire 57-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Florida's real per capita personal income grew at an annual rate of 2.27% over 1959-2015. The state posted its highest growth in 1969 (7.90%) and recorded its lowest growth in 2009 (-6.47%). In 2015, Florida's real per capita personal income grew by 3.28% Florida Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1959-2015  Figure 6. Over the past five decades some states have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Florida's real per capita personal income since 1959, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2015. During the 1960s, Florida's annual real per capita personal income growth rate averaged 3.99%. It averaged 2.49% throughout the 1970s, 2.82% in the 1980s, 1.47% throughout the 1990s, 0.77% throughout the 2000s, and 1.53% thus far this decade (2010 to 2015). Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade  Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Florida noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Washington and the nation. As the chart reveals, Florida's average annual real per capita personal income growth exceeded Washington's average in the 1960s (3.99% vs. 3.42%), topped Washington's average in the 1970s (2.49% vs. 2.47%), outperformed Washington's average during the 1980s (2.82% vs. 1.48%), lagged Washington's average in the 1990s (1.47% vs. 2.72%), fell below Washington's average in the 2000s (0.77% vs. 0.94%), and fell below Washington's average over the 6 year period of the last decade, 2010-2015 (1.53% vs. 2.11%). Finally, relative to nationwide real per capita personal income growth trends, Florida recorded above the nation over the 1960s (3.99% vs. 3.48%), outperformed the nation over the 1970s (2.49% vs. 2.34%), recorded above the nation throughout the 1980s (2.82% vs. 2.21%), posted below the nation in the 1990s (1.47% vs. 2.05%), trailed the nation throughout the 2000s (0.77% vs. 1.12%), and trailed the nation over 2010-2015 (1.53% vs. 1.85%).
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