Tennessee vs. United States Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1958-2022 Introduction Tennessee: 2022 Population = 7,051,339 2022 Percent of U.S. = 2.12% U.S.: 2022 Population = 333,287,557 Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Tennessee with comparisons to the nation at large. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1958-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Tennessee's annual population for the period 1958-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 65-year period, Tennessee's population rose from 3,471,000 in 1958 to 7,051,339 in 2022, for a net gain of 3,580,339, or 103.15%. NOTE: The state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1958=100): 1958-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 portrays Tennessee's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1958 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1958 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Tennessee's overall population growth was 103.15% over 1958-2022 outpaced the United States' increase of 91.38%. Population as a Percent of the United States Total: 1958-2022 Figure 3. Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of Tennessee is to trace its individual percentage contributions to the United States' total population over time, as shown in Figure 3. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than the United States' population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1958, Tennessee's population comprised 1.99% of the United States' population, while in 2022 it comprised 2.12% thereby yielding a +0.12% share-shift.
Tennessee Population: Annual Percent Change, 1959-2022 Figure 4. Figure 4 shows the short-run pattern of Tennessee's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1959-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 64-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Tennessee's population grew at an annual rate of 1.11% over 1959-2022. The state posted its highest growth in 1972 (1.95%) and posted its lowest growth in 1983 (0.30%). In 2022, Tennessee's population grew by 1.19% Tennessee Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1959-2022 Figure 5. Over the past six decades some states have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 5 again shows the annual percent change in Tennessee's population since 1959, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1960s, Tennessee's annual population growth rate averaged 1.02%. It averaged 1.52% in the 1970s, 0.69% during the 1980s, 1.51% in the 1990s, 1.13% throughout the 2000s, 0.85% in the 2010s, 0.91% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 6. Figure 6 compares the decade average growth rates for Tennessee noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for the nation. Relative to nationwide population growth trends, Tennessee fell below the nation during the 1960s (1.02% vs. 1.29%), recorded above the nation during the 1970s (1.52% vs. 1.10%), posted below the nation over the 1980s (0.69% vs. 0.95%), outperformed the nation throughout the 1990s (1.51% vs. 1.23%), registered above the nation throughout the 2000s (1.13% vs. 0.95%), outgained the nation over the 2010s (0.85% vs. 0.74%), and recorded above the nation over 2020-2022 (0.91% vs. 0.31%).
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