Southeast vs. Great Lakes
Comparative Trends Analysis:
Population Growth and Change, 1958-2016
Introduction
Southeast:
2016 Population = 82,883,735
2016 Percent of U.S. = 25.7%
Great Lakes:
2016 Population = 46,755,973
2016 Percent of U.S. = 14.5%
Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy.
The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Southeast with comparisons to the Great Lakes and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Southeast vs. the Great Lakes' population growth over 1958-2016. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Population, 1958-2016
Population, 1958-2016
Figure 1.
Figure 1 traces the Southeast's and the Great Lakes' annual population for the period 1958-2016 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 59-year period, the Southeast's population rose from 37,435,000 in 1958 to 82,883,735 in 2016, for a net gain of 45,448,735, or 121.4%. In comparison, the Great Lakes' population increased from 35,578,000 in 1958 to 46,755,973 in 2016, for a net advance of 11,177,973, or 31.4%.
NOTE: The state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.
Population Indices (1958=100): 1958-2016
Population Indices (1958=100): 1958-2016
Figure 2.
Figure 2 portrays the Southeast's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with the Great Lakes, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1958 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1958 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
The Southeast's overall population growth was 121.4% over 1958-2016 outpaced the Great Lakes' increase of 31.4%, and topped the United States' increase of 85.5%.
Population as a Percent of the United States Total: 1958-2016
Population as a Percent of the United States Total: 1958-2016
Figure 3.
Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of the Southeast and the Great Lakes is to trace their individual percentage contributions to the United States' total population over time, as shown in Figure 3. A rising share means a region's population grew faster—or declined less—than the United States' population, while a declining share shows they grew more slowly.
In 1958, the Southeast's population totaled 21.5% of the United States' population, while in 2016 it totaled 25.7% thereby yielding a +4.2% share-shift. Similarly, in 1958, the Great Lakes' population accounted for 20.4% of the United States' population, while in 2016 it accounted for 14.5%, resulting in a -6.0% share-shift.
   
 
Population Share-Shift
2016 vs. 1958
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2016
vs.
1958
+4.16%
=
25.65%
-
21.50%
-5.96%
=
14.47%
-
20.43%
 
   
Southeast Population:
Annual Percent Change, 1959-2016
Southeast Population:
Annual Percent Change, 1959-2016
Figure 4.
Figure 4 displays the short-run pattern of the Southeast's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1959-2016. The average annual percent change for the entire 58-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, the Southeast's population grew at an annual rate of 1.38% over 1959-2016. The Southeast posted its highest growth in 1971 (2.36%) and recorded its lowest growth in 2013 (0.78%). In 2016, the Southeast's population grew by 0.96%
Southeast Population:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1959-2016
Southeast Population:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1959-2016
Figure 5.
Over the past five decades some BEA regions have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 5 again depicts the annual percent change in the Southeast's population since 1959, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2016.
During the 1960s, the Southeast's annual population growth rate averaged 1.32%. It averaged 1.81% in the 1970s, 1.23% during the 1980s, 1.56% in the 1990s, 1.27% in the 2000s, and 0.91% thus far this decade (2010 to 2016).
Population Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Population Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 6.
Figure 6 compares the decade average growth rates for the Southeast noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for the Great Lakes and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Southeast's average annual population growth registered above the Great Lakes' average throughout the 1960s (1.32% vs. 1.06%), outgained the Great Lakes' average in the 1970s (1.81% vs. 0.42%), led the Great Lakes' average in the 1980s (1.23% vs. 0.06%), outpaced the Great Lakes' average throughout the 1990s (1.56% vs. 0.72%), surpassed the Great Lakes' average in the 2000s (1.27% vs. 0.30%), and exceeded the Great Lakes' average over the 7 year period of the last decade, 2010-2016 (0.91% vs. 0.12%).
Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Southeast outperformed the nation throughout the 1960s (1.32% vs. 1.29%), outpaced the nation throughout the 1970s (1.81% vs. 1.10%), registered above the nation over the 1980s (1.23% vs. 0.95%), exceeded the nation during the 1990s (1.56% vs. 1.23%), outgained the nation during the 2000s (1.27% vs. 0.95%), and recorded above the nation over 2010-2016 (0.91% vs. 0.74%).
   
 
Population Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change
 
 
 
1.38
1.32
1.81
1.23
1.56
1.27
0.91
0.96
 
0.47
1.06
0.42
0.06
0.72
0.30
0.12
0.03
 
1.07
1.29
1.10
0.95
1.23
0.95
0.74
0.70
 
   
   
 
Southeast:
Population, 1958-2016
 
1958
 
37,435,000
100.0
N
21.50
1959
 
38,115,000
101.8
1.82
21.52
1960
 
38,885,000
103.9
2.02
21.61
1961
 
39,544,000
105.6
1.69
21.61
1962
 
40,179,000
107.3
1.61
21.63
1963
 
40,742,000
108.8
1.40
21.62
1964
 
41,349,000
110.5
1.49
21.64
1965
 
41,857,000
111.8
1.23
21.64
1966
 
42,257,000
112.9
0.96
21.61
1967
 
42,611,000
113.8
0.84
21.59
1968
 
43,042,000
115.0
1.01
21.60
1969
 
43,440,000
116.0
0.92
21.58
1970
 
43,973,515
117.5
1.23
21.58
1971
 
45,013,167
120.2
2.36
21.76
1972
 
46,019,010
122.9
2.23
21.99
1973
 
46,991,755
125.5
2.11
22.23
1974
 
47,954,591
128.1
2.05
22.48
1975
 
48,787,678
130.3
1.74
22.64
1976
 
49,513,969
132.3
1.49
22.76
1977
 
50,311,832
134.4
1.61
22.89
1978
 
51,113,001
136.5
1.59
23.01
1979
 
51,976,687
138.8
1.69
23.15
1980
 
52,881,196
141.3
1.74
23.27
1981
 
53,627,371
143.3
1.41
23.37
1982
 
54,248,696
144.9
1.16
23.42
1983
 
54,856,066
146.5
1.12
23.46
1984
 
55,514,620
148.3
1.20
23.54
1985
 
56,198,797
150.1
1.23
23.62
1986
 
56,861,115
151.9
1.18
23.68
1987
 
57,536,401
153.7
1.19
23.75
1988
 
58,120,493
155.3
1.02
23.77
1989
 
58,733,381
156.9
1.05
23.80
1990
 
59,516,122
159.0
1.33
23.84
1991
 
60,500,666
161.6
1.65
23.92
1992
 
61,508,138
164.3
1.67
23.98
1993
 
62,530,549
167.0
1.66
24.06
1994
 
63,574,211
169.8
1.67
24.16
1995
 
64,601,937
172.6
1.62
24.26
1996
 
65,611,342
175.3
1.56
24.36
1997
 
66,655,300
178.1
1.59
24.45
1998
 
67,626,581
180.7
1.46
24.52
1999
 
68,569,381
183.2
1.39
24.57
2000
 
69,497,232
185.6
1.35
24.63
2001
 
70,317,959
187.8
1.18
24.68
2002
 
71,151,666
190.1
1.19
24.74
2003
 
71,961,591
192.2
1.14
24.81
2004
 
73,019,229
195.1
1.47
24.94
2005
 
74,148,386
198.1
1.55
25.09
2006
 
75,065,947
200.5
1.24
25.16
2007
 
76,122,849
203.3
1.41
25.27
2008
 
77,057,840
205.8
1.23
25.34
2009
 
77,814,936
207.9
0.98
25.37
2010
 
78,565,618
209.9
0.96
25.40
2011
 
79,257,134
211.7
0.88
25.43
2012
 
79,968,491
213.6
0.90
25.47
2013
 
80,592,691
215.3
0.78
25.49
2014
 
81,312,813
217.2
0.89
25.52
2015
 
82,092,717
219.3
0.96
25.58
2016
 
82,883,735
221.4
0.96
25.65
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
September 2017
REAP_PI_SA1400_100_PSN
 
   
   
 
Great Lakes:
Population, 1958-2016
 
1958
 
35,578,000
100.0
N
20.43
1959
 
35,928,000
101.0
0.98
20.28
1960
 
36,290,000
102.0
1.01
20.16
1961
 
36,616,000
102.9
0.90
20.01
1962
 
36,927,000
103.8
0.85
19.88
1963
 
37,357,000
105.0
1.16
19.82
1964
 
37,868,000
106.4
1.37
19.82
1965
 
38,405,000
107.9
1.42
19.85
1966
 
38,951,000
109.5
1.42
19.92
1967
 
39,347,000
110.6
1.02
19.94
1968
 
39,645,000
111.4
0.76
19.89
1969
 
39,904,000
112.2
0.65
19.82
1970
 
40,319,722
113.3
1.04
19.78
1971
 
40,622,322
114.2
0.75
19.64
1972
 
40,824,274
114.7
0.50
19.51
1973
 
40,946,800
115.1
0.30
19.37
1974
 
41,036,791
115.3
0.22
19.24
1975
 
41,105,385
115.5
0.17
19.08
1976
 
41,186,726
115.8
0.20
18.93
1977
 
41,353,165
116.2
0.40
18.82
1978
 
41,510,152
116.7
0.38
18.69
1979
 
41,610,978
117.0
0.24
18.53
1980
 
41,693,671
117.2
0.20
18.35
1981
 
41,647,869
117.1
-0.11
18.15
1982
 
41,492,474
116.6
-0.37
17.91
1983
 
41,366,046
116.3
-0.30
17.69
1984
 
41,393,218
116.3
0.07
17.55
1985
 
41,417,995
116.4
0.06
17.41
1986
 
41,455,030
116.5
0.09
17.26
1987
 
41,589,687
116.9
0.32
17.17
1988
 
41,720,866
117.3
0.32
17.06
1989
 
41,872,543
117.7
0.36
16.96
1990
 
42,091,157
118.3
0.52
16.86
1991
 
42,495,903
119.4
0.96
16.80
1992
 
42,902,625
120.6
0.96
16.73
1993
 
43,274,741
121.6
0.87
16.65
1994
 
43,589,980
122.5
0.73
16.57
1995
 
43,923,694
123.5
0.77
16.50
1996
 
44,239,468
124.3
0.72
16.42
1997
 
44,493,603
125.1
0.57
16.32
1998
 
44,727,877
125.7
0.53
16.21
1999
 
44,969,225
126.4
0.54
16.12
2000
 
45,216,019
127.1
0.55
16.02
2001
 
45,401,564
127.6
0.41
15.93
2002
 
45,550,284
128.0
0.33
15.84
2003
 
45,707,787
128.5
0.35
15.76
2004
 
45,844,372
128.9
0.30
15.66
2005
 
45,949,142
129.2
0.23
15.55
2006
 
46,071,573
129.5
0.27
15.44
2007
 
46,187,992
129.8
0.25
15.33
2008
 
46,275,120
130.1
0.19
15.22
2009
 
46,355,854
130.3
0.17
15.11
2010
 
46,440,847
130.5
0.18
15.01
2011
 
46,507,169
130.7
0.14
14.92
2012
 
46,572,795
130.9
0.14
14.83
2013
 
46,660,465
131.1
0.19
14.76
2014
 
46,731,329
131.3
0.15
14.67
2015
 
46,742,511
131.4
0.02
14.57
2016
 
46,755,973
131.4
0.03
14.47
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
September 2017
REAP_PI_SA1400_100_PSN
 
   
   
 
United States:
Population, 1958-2016
 
1958
 
174,153,000
100.0
N
1959
 
177,136,000
101.7
1.71
1960
 
179,972,000
103.3
1.60
1961
 
182,976,000
105.1
1.67
1962
 
185,739,000
106.7
1.51
1963
 
188,434,000
108.2
1.45
1964
 
191,085,000
109.7
1.41
1965
 
193,460,000
111.1
1.24
1966
 
195,499,000
112.3
1.05
1967
 
197,375,000
113.3
0.96
1968
 
199,312,000
114.4
0.98
1969
 
201,298,000
115.6
1.00
1970
 
203,798,722
117.0
1.24
1971
 
206,817,509
118.8
1.48
1972
 
209,274,882
120.2
1.19
1973
 
211,349,205
121.4
0.99
1974
 
213,333,635
122.5
0.94
1975
 
215,456,585
123.7
1.00
1976
 
217,553,859
124.9
0.97
1977
 
219,760,875
126.2
1.01
1978
 
222,098,244
127.5
1.06
1979
 
224,568,579
128.9
1.11
1980
 
227,224,719
130.5
1.18
1981
 
229,465,744
131.8
0.99
1982
 
231,664,432
133.0
0.96
1983
 
233,792,014
134.2
0.92
1984
 
235,824,907
135.4
0.87
1985
 
237,923,734
136.6
0.89
1986
 
240,132,831
137.9
0.93
1987
 
242,288,936
139.1
0.90
1988
 
244,499,004
140.4
0.91
1989
 
246,819,222
141.7
0.95
1990
 
249,622,814
143.3
1.14
1991
 
252,980,941
145.3
1.35
1992
 
256,514,224
147.3
1.40
1993
 
259,918,588
149.2
1.33
1994
 
263,125,821
151.1
1.23
1995
 
266,278,393
152.9
1.20
1996
 
269,394,284
154.7
1.17
1997
 
272,646,925
156.6
1.21
1998
 
275,854,104
158.4
1.18
1999
 
279,040,168
160.2
1.15
2000
 
282,162,411
162.0
1.12
2001
 
284,968,955
163.6
0.99
2002
 
287,625,193
165.2
0.93
2003
 
290,107,933
166.6
0.86
2004
 
292,805,298
168.1
0.93
2005
 
295,516,599
169.7
0.93
2006
 
298,379,912
171.3
0.97
2007
 
301,231,207
173.0
0.96
2008
 
304,093,966
174.6
0.95
2009
 
306,771,529
176.2
0.88
2010
 
309,348,193
177.6
0.84
2011
 
311,663,358
179.0
0.75
2012
 
313,998,379
180.3
0.75
2013
 
316,204,908
181.6
0.70
2014
 
318,563,456
182.9
0.75
2015
 
320,896,618
184.3
0.73
2016
 
323,127,513
185.5
0.70
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
September 2017
REAP_PI_SA1400_100_PN
 
   
Copyright © 2017. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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