| Southeast vs. Great Lakes Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1958-2019 Introduction Southeast: 2019 Population = 84,902,403 2019 Percent of U.S. = 25.9% Great Lakes: 2019 Population = 46,902,431 2019 Percent of U.S. = 14.3% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Southeast with comparisons to the Great Lakes and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Southeast vs. the Great Lakes' population growth over 1958-2019. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks the Southeast's and the Great Lakes' annual population for the period 1958-2019 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 62-year period, the Southeast's population rose from 37,435,000 in 1958 to 84,902,403 in 2019, for a net gain of 47,467,403, or 126.8%. In comparison, the Great Lakes' population advanced from 35,578,000 in 1958 to 46,902,431 in 2019, for a net advance of 11,324,431, or 31.8%. NOTE: The state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Figure 2. Figure 2 shows the Southeast's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with the Great Lakes, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1958 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1958 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Southeast's overall population growth was 126.8% over 1958-2019 outpaced the Great Lakes' increase of 31.8%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 88.5%. Figure 3. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of the Southeast and the Great Lakes is to compare their individual percentage contributions to the United States' total population over time, as shown in Figure 3. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than the United States' population, while a declining share shows they grew more slowly. In 1958, the Southeast's population totaled 21.5% of the United States' population, while in 2019 it comprised 25.9% thereby yielding a +4.4% share-shift. Similarly, in 1958, the Great Lakes' population consisted of 20.4% of the United States' population, while in 2019 it consisted of 14.3%, resulting in a -6.1% share-shift. | | | | Population Share-Shift 2019 vs. 1958 | Share- Shift* | | 2019 | vs. | 1958 | | +4.37% | = | 25.87% | - | 21.50% | | -6.14% | = | 14.29% | - | 20.43% |
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Figure 4. Figure 4 highlights the short-run pattern of the Southeast's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1959-2019. The average annual percent change for the entire 61-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Southeast's population grew at an annual rate of 1.35% over 1959-2019. The Southeast posted its highest growth in 1971 (2.36%) and recorded its lowest growth in 2019 (0.72%). In 2019, the Southeast's population grew by 0.72% Figure 5. Over the past six decades some BEA regions have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 5 again illustrates the annual percent change in the Southeast's population since 1959, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2019. During the 1960s, the Southeast's annual population growth rate averaged 1.32%. It averaged 1.81% throughout the 1970s, 1.23% during the 1980s, 1.56% in the 1990s, 1.27% in the 2000s, and 0.88% thus far this decade (2010 to 2019). Figure 6. Figure 6 compares the decade average growth rates for the Southeast noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for the Great Lakes and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Southeast's average annual population growth outpaced the Great Lakes' average in the 1960s (1.32% vs. 1.06%), led the Great Lakes' average in the 1970s (1.81% vs. 0.42%), led the Great Lakes' average during the 1980s (1.23% vs. 0.06%), outperformed the Great Lakes' average in the 1990s (1.56% vs. 0.72%), exceeded the Great Lakes' average during the 2000s (1.27% vs. 0.30%), and exceeded the Great Lakes' average over the 10 year period of the last decade, 2010-2019 (0.88% vs. 0.12%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Southeast exceeded the nation over the 1960s (1.32% vs. 1.29%), led the nation over the 1970s (1.81% vs. 1.10%), topped the nation throughout the 1980s (1.23% vs. 0.95%), topped the nation over the 1990s (1.56% vs. 1.23%), outgained the nation during the 2000s (1.27% vs. 0.95%), and surpassed the nation over 2010-2019 (0.88% vs. 0.68%). | | | | Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.81 | 1.23 | 1.56 | 1.27 | 0.88 | 0.72 | | | 0.45 | 1.06 | 0.42 | 0.06 | 0.72 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 0.03 | | | 1.04 | 1.29 | 1.10 | 0.95 | 1.23 | 0.95 | 0.68 | 0.48 |
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Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.
| | | | Southeast: Population, 1958-2019 | | | | | | | 1958 | | 37,435,000 | 100.0 | N | 21.50 | 1959 | | 38,115,000 | 101.8 | 1.82 | 21.52 | 1960 | | 38,885,000 | 103.9 | 2.02 | 21.61 | 1961 | | 39,544,000 | 105.6 | 1.69 | 21.61 | 1962 | | 40,179,000 | 107.3 | 1.61 | 21.63 | 1963 | | 40,742,000 | 108.8 | 1.40 | 21.62 | 1964 | | 41,349,000 | 110.5 | 1.49 | 21.64 | 1965 | | 41,857,000 | 111.8 | 1.23 | 21.64 | 1966 | | 42,257,000 | 112.9 | 0.96 | 21.61 | 1967 | | 42,611,000 | 113.8 | 0.84 | 21.59 | 1968 | | 43,042,000 | 115.0 | 1.01 | 21.60 | 1969 | | 43,440,000 | 116.0 | 0.92 | 21.58 | 1970 | | 43,973,515 | 117.5 | 1.23 | 21.58 | 1971 | | 45,013,167 | 120.2 | 2.36 | 21.76 | 1972 | | 46,019,010 | 122.9 | 2.23 | 21.99 | 1973 | | 46,991,755 | 125.5 | 2.11 | 22.23 | 1974 | | 47,954,591 | 128.1 | 2.05 | 22.48 | 1975 | | 48,787,678 | 130.3 | 1.74 | 22.64 | 1976 | | 49,513,969 | 132.3 | 1.49 | 22.76 | 1977 | | 50,311,832 | 134.4 | 1.61 | 22.89 | 1978 | | 51,113,001 | 136.5 | 1.59 | 23.01 | 1979 | | 51,976,687 | 138.8 | 1.69 | 23.15 | 1980 | | 52,881,196 | 141.3 | 1.74 | 23.27 | 1981 | | 53,627,371 | 143.3 | 1.41 | 23.37 | 1982 | | 54,248,696 | 144.9 | 1.16 | 23.42 | 1983 | | 54,856,066 | 146.5 | 1.12 | 23.46 | 1984 | | 55,514,620 | 148.3 | 1.20 | 23.54 | 1985 | | 56,198,797 | 150.1 | 1.23 | 23.62 | 1986 | | 56,861,115 | 151.9 | 1.18 | 23.68 | 1987 | | 57,536,401 | 153.7 | 1.19 | 23.75 | 1988 | | 58,120,493 | 155.3 | 1.02 | 23.77 | 1989 | | 58,733,381 | 156.9 | 1.05 | 23.80 | 1990 | | 59,516,122 | 159.0 | 1.33 | 23.84 | 1991 | | 60,500,666 | 161.6 | 1.65 | 23.92 | 1992 | | 61,508,138 | 164.3 | 1.67 | 23.98 | 1993 | | 62,530,549 | 167.0 | 1.66 | 24.06 | 1994 | | 63,574,211 | 169.8 | 1.67 | 24.16 | 1995 | | 64,601,937 | 172.6 | 1.62 | 24.26 | 1996 | | 65,611,342 | 175.3 | 1.56 | 24.36 | 1997 | | 66,655,300 | 178.1 | 1.59 | 24.45 | 1998 | | 67,626,581 | 180.7 | 1.46 | 24.52 | 1999 | | 68,569,381 | 183.2 | 1.39 | 24.57 | 2000 | | 69,497,232 | 185.6 | 1.35 | 24.63 | 2001 | | 70,317,959 | 187.8 | 1.18 | 24.68 | 2002 | | 71,151,666 | 190.1 | 1.19 | 24.74 | 2003 | | 71,961,591 | 192.2 | 1.14 | 24.81 | 2004 | | 73,019,229 | 195.1 | 1.47 | 24.94 | 2005 | | 74,148,386 | 198.1 | 1.55 | 25.09 | 2006 | | 75,065,947 | 200.5 | 1.24 | 25.16 | 2007 | | 76,122,849 | 203.3 | 1.41 | 25.27 | 2008 | | 77,057,840 | 205.8 | 1.23 | 25.34 | 2009 | | 77,814,936 | 207.9 | 0.98 | 25.37 | 2010 | | 78,571,301 | 209.9 | 0.97 | 25.40 | 2011 | | 79,205,914 | 211.6 | 0.81 | 25.42 | 2012 | | 79,900,818 | 213.4 | 0.88 | 25.46 | 2013 | | 80,533,575 | 215.1 | 0.79 | 25.49 | 2014 | | 81,229,419 | 217.0 | 0.86 | 25.52 | 2015 | | 82,015,571 | 219.1 | 0.97 | 25.58 | 2016 | | 82,872,960 | 221.4 | 1.05 | 25.66 | 2017 | | 83,640,003 | 223.4 | 0.93 | 25.74 | 2018 | | 84,297,704 | 225.2 | 0.79 | 25.80 | 2019 | | 84,902,403 | 226.8 | 0.72 | 25.87 |
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP) with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis September 2020 REAP_PI_SA1400_100_PSN | | | | |
Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.
| | | | Great Lakes: Population, 1958-2019 | | | | | | | 1958 | | 35,578,000 | 100.0 | N | 20.43 | 1959 | | 35,928,000 | 101.0 | 0.98 | 20.28 | 1960 | | 36,290,000 | 102.0 | 1.01 | 20.16 | 1961 | | 36,616,000 | 102.9 | 0.90 | 20.01 | 1962 | | 36,927,000 | 103.8 | 0.85 | 19.88 | 1963 | | 37,357,000 | 105.0 | 1.16 | 19.82 | 1964 | | 37,868,000 | 106.4 | 1.37 | 19.82 | 1965 | | 38,405,000 | 107.9 | 1.42 | 19.85 | 1966 | | 38,951,000 | 109.5 | 1.42 | 19.92 | 1967 | | 39,347,000 | 110.6 | 1.02 | 19.94 | 1968 | | 39,645,000 | 111.4 | 0.76 | 19.89 | 1969 | | 39,904,000 | 112.2 | 0.65 | 19.82 | 1970 | | 40,319,722 | 113.3 | 1.04 | 19.78 | 1971 | | 40,622,322 | 114.2 | 0.75 | 19.64 | 1972 | | 40,824,274 | 114.7 | 0.50 | 19.51 | 1973 | | 40,946,800 | 115.1 | 0.30 | 19.37 | 1974 | | 41,036,791 | 115.3 | 0.22 | 19.24 | 1975 | | 41,105,385 | 115.5 | 0.17 | 19.08 | 1976 | | 41,186,726 | 115.8 | 0.20 | 18.93 | 1977 | | 41,353,165 | 116.2 | 0.40 | 18.82 | 1978 | | 41,510,152 | 116.7 | 0.38 | 18.69 | 1979 | | 41,610,978 | 117.0 | 0.24 | 18.53 | 1980 | | 41,693,671 | 117.2 | 0.20 | 18.35 | 1981 | | 41,647,869 | 117.1 | -0.11 | 18.15 | 1982 | | 41,492,474 | 116.6 | -0.37 | 17.91 | 1983 | | 41,366,046 | 116.3 | -0.30 | 17.69 | 1984 | | 41,393,218 | 116.3 | 0.07 | 17.55 | 1985 | | 41,417,995 | 116.4 | 0.06 | 17.41 | 1986 | | 41,455,030 | 116.5 | 0.09 | 17.26 | 1987 | | 41,589,687 | 116.9 | 0.32 | 17.17 | 1988 | | 41,720,866 | 117.3 | 0.32 | 17.06 | 1989 | | 41,872,543 | 117.7 | 0.36 | 16.96 | 1990 | | 42,091,157 | 118.3 | 0.52 | 16.86 | 1991 | | 42,495,903 | 119.4 | 0.96 | 16.80 | 1992 | | 42,902,625 | 120.6 | 0.96 | 16.73 | 1993 | | 43,274,741 | 121.6 | 0.87 | 16.65 | 1994 | | 43,589,980 | 122.5 | 0.73 | 16.57 | 1995 | | 43,923,694 | 123.5 | 0.77 | 16.50 | 1996 | | 44,239,468 | 124.3 | 0.72 | 16.42 | 1997 | | 44,493,603 | 125.1 | 0.57 | 16.32 | 1998 | | 44,727,877 | 125.7 | 0.53 | 16.21 | 1999 | | 44,969,225 | 126.4 | 0.54 | 16.12 | 2000 | | 45,216,019 | 127.1 | 0.55 | 16.02 | 2001 | | 45,401,564 | 127.6 | 0.41 | 15.93 | 2002 | | 45,550,284 | 128.0 | 0.33 | 15.84 | 2003 | | 45,707,787 | 128.5 | 0.35 | 15.76 | 2004 | | 45,844,372 | 128.9 | 0.30 | 15.66 | 2005 | | 45,949,142 | 129.2 | 0.23 | 15.55 | 2006 | | 46,071,573 | 129.5 | 0.27 | 15.44 | 2007 | | 46,187,992 | 129.8 | 0.25 | 15.33 | 2008 | | 46,275,120 | 130.1 | 0.19 | 15.22 | 2009 | | 46,355,854 | 130.3 | 0.17 | 15.11 | 2010 | | 46,438,256 | 130.5 | 0.18 | 15.01 | 2011 | | 46,516,345 | 130.7 | 0.17 | 14.93 | 2012 | | 46,586,241 | 130.9 | 0.15 | 14.84 | 2013 | | 46,690,345 | 131.2 | 0.22 | 14.78 | 2014 | | 46,762,210 | 131.4 | 0.15 | 14.69 | 2015 | | 46,777,517 | 131.5 | 0.03 | 14.59 | 2016 | | 46,812,400 | 131.6 | 0.07 | 14.50 | 2017 | | 46,859,856 | 131.7 | 0.10 | 14.42 | 2018 | | 46,886,387 | 131.8 | 0.06 | 14.35 | 2019 | | 46,902,431 | 131.8 | 0.03 | 14.29 |
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP) with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis September 2020 REAP_PI_SA1400_100_PSN | | | | |
Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.
| | | | United States: Population, 1958-2019 | | | | | | 1958 | | 174,153,000 | 100.0 | N | 1959 | | 177,136,000 | 101.7 | 1.71 | 1960 | | 179,972,000 | 103.3 | 1.60 | 1961 | | 182,976,000 | 105.1 | 1.67 | 1962 | | 185,739,000 | 106.7 | 1.51 | 1963 | | 188,434,000 | 108.2 | 1.45 | 1964 | | 191,085,000 | 109.7 | 1.41 | 1965 | | 193,460,000 | 111.1 | 1.24 | 1966 | | 195,499,000 | 112.3 | 1.05 | 1967 | | 197,375,000 | 113.3 | 0.96 | 1968 | | 199,312,000 | 114.4 | 0.98 | 1969 | | 201,298,000 | 115.6 | 1.00 | 1970 | | 203,798,722 | 117.0 | 1.24 | 1971 | | 206,817,509 | 118.8 | 1.48 | 1972 | | 209,274,882 | 120.2 | 1.19 | 1973 | | 211,349,205 | 121.4 | 0.99 | 1974 | | 213,333,635 | 122.5 | 0.94 | 1975 | | 215,456,585 | 123.7 | 1.00 | 1976 | | 217,553,859 | 124.9 | 0.97 | 1977 | | 219,760,875 | 126.2 | 1.01 | 1978 | | 222,098,244 | 127.5 | 1.06 | 1979 | | 224,568,579 | 128.9 | 1.11 | 1980 | | 227,224,719 | 130.5 | 1.18 | 1981 | | 229,465,744 | 131.8 | 0.99 | 1982 | | 231,664,432 | 133.0 | 0.96 | 1983 | | 233,792,014 | 134.2 | 0.92 | 1984 | | 235,824,907 | 135.4 | 0.87 | 1985 | | 237,923,734 | 136.6 | 0.89 | 1986 | | 240,132,831 | 137.9 | 0.93 | 1987 | | 242,288,936 | 139.1 | 0.90 | 1988 | | 244,499,004 | 140.4 | 0.91 | 1989 | | 246,819,222 | 141.7 | 0.95 | 1990 | | 249,622,814 | 143.3 | 1.14 | 1991 | | 252,980,941 | 145.3 | 1.35 | 1992 | | 256,514,224 | 147.3 | 1.40 | 1993 | | 259,918,588 | 149.2 | 1.33 | 1994 | | 263,125,821 | 151.1 | 1.23 | 1995 | | 266,278,393 | 152.9 | 1.20 | 1996 | | 269,394,284 | 154.7 | 1.17 | 1997 | | 272,646,925 | 156.6 | 1.21 | 1998 | | 275,854,104 | 158.4 | 1.18 | 1999 | | 279,040,168 | 160.2 | 1.15 | 2000 | | 282,162,411 | 162.0 | 1.12 | 2001 | | 284,968,955 | 163.6 | 0.99 | 2002 | | 287,625,193 | 165.2 | 0.93 | 2003 | | 290,107,933 | 166.6 | 0.86 | 2004 | | 292,805,298 | 168.1 | 0.93 | 2005 | | 295,516,599 | 169.7 | 0.93 | 2006 | | 298,379,912 | 171.3 | 0.97 | 2007 | | 301,231,207 | 173.0 | 0.96 | 2008 | | 304,093,966 | 174.6 | 0.95 | 2009 | | 306,771,529 | 176.2 | 0.88 | 2010 | | 309,321,666 | 177.6 | 0.83 | 2011 | | 311,556,874 | 178.9 | 0.72 | 2012 | | 313,830,990 | 180.2 | 0.73 | 2013 | | 315,993,715 | 181.4 | 0.69 | 2014 | | 318,301,008 | 182.8 | 0.73 | 2015 | | 320,635,163 | 184.1 | 0.73 | 2016 | | 322,941,311 | 185.4 | 0.72 | 2017 | | 324,985,539 | 186.6 | 0.63 | 2018 | | 326,687,501 | 187.6 | 0.52 | 2019 | | 328,239,523 | 188.5 | 0.48 |
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP) with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis September 2020 REAP_PI_SA1400_100_PN | | | | |
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