Texas vs. California
Comparative Trends Analysis:
Total Employment Growth and Change, 1969-2015
Introduction
Texas:
2015 Jobs = 16,367,980
2015 Percent of U.S. = 8.6%
2015 Rank = #2
California:
2015 Jobs = 22,625,879
2015 Percent of U.S. = 11.9%
2015 Rank = #1
Employment numbers remain the most popular and frequently cited statistics used for tracking local area economic conditions and trends. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) employment estimates reported measure the number of full- and part-time wage and salary employees, plus the number of proprietors of unincorporated businesses. People holding more than one job are counted in the employment estimates for each job they hold. This means BEA employment estimates represent a job count, not a people count. Also, BEA employment is by place-of-work, rather than by place-of-residence. Jobs held by neighboring county residents who commute to Texas to work are included in the employment count for Texas.
BEA Data Definition:
The BEA employment series for states and local areas comprises estimates of the number of jobs, full-time plus part-time, by place of work. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted at equal weight. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are not included. Proprietors employment consists of the number of sole proprietorships and the number of partners in partnerships. The description "by place of work" applies to the wage and salary portion of the series and, with relatively little error, to the entire series. The proprietors employment portion of the series, however, is more nearly by place of residence because, for nonfarm sole proprietorships, the estimates are based on IRS tax data that reflect the address from which the proprietor's individual tax return is filed, which is usually the proprietor's residence. The nonfarm partnership portion of the proprietors employment series reflects the tax-filing address of the partnership, which may be either the residence of one of the partners or the business address of the partnership. The employment estimates are designed to be consistent with the estimates of wage and salary disbursements and proprietors' income that are part of the personal income series. The employment estimates are based on the same sets of source data as the corresponding earnings estimates and are prepared with parallel methodologies. Two forms of proprietors' income-the income of limited partnerships and the income of tax-exempt cooperatives-have no corresponding employment estimates.
Total Employment, 1969-2015
Total Employment, 1969-2015
Figure 1.
Figure 1 traces Texas' and California's annual total employment for the period 1969-2015 to illustrate total employment patterns over time. During this 47-year period, Texas' total employment rose from 5,005,193 in 1969 to 16,367,980 in 2015, for a net gain of 11,362,787, or 227.0%. In comparison, California's total employment advanced from 9,032,738 in 1969 to 22,625,879 in 2015, for a net gain of 13,593,141, or 150.5%. Texas' total employment ranked 2nd among the 51 states in 2015, California's ranked 1st.
Total Employment Indices (1969=100): 1969-2015
Total Employment Indices (1969=100): 1969-2015
Figure 2.
Figure 2 shows Texas' total employment growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with California, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's total employment in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the total employments in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in total employment growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
Texas' overall total employment growth was 227.0% over 1969-2015 outpaced California's increase of 150.5%, and topped the United States' increase of 108.9%.
Total Employment as a Percent of the United States Total: 1969-2015
Total Employment as a Percent of the United States Total: 1969-2015
Figure 3.
Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the total employment growth of Texas and California is to compare their individual percentage contributions to the United States' total total employment over time, as shown in Figure 3. A rising share means a state's total employment grew faster—or declined less—than the United States' total employment, while a declining share shows they grew more slowly.
In 1969, Texas' total employment totaled 5.5% of the United States' total employment, while in 2015 it comprised 8.6% thereby yielding a +3.1% share-shift. Similarly, in 1969, California's total employment accounted for 9.9% of the United States' total employment, while in 2015 it consisted of 11.9%, resulting in a +2.0% share-shift.
   
 
Total Employment Share-Shift
2015 vs. 1969
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2015
vs.
1969
+3.11%
=
8.61%
-
5.50%
+1.98%
=
11.90%
-
9.92%
 
   
Texas Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2015
Texas Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2015
Figure 4.
Figure 4 displays the short-run pattern of Texas' total employment growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2015. The average annual percent change for the entire 46-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, Texas' total employment grew at an annual rate of 2.62% over 1970-2015. The state recorded its highest growth in 1978 (5.82%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1986 (-1.84%). In 2015, Texas' total employment grew by 2.35%
Texas Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2015
Texas Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2015
Figure 5.
Over the past five decades some states have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 5 again traces the annual percent change in Texas' total employment since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2015.
During the 1970s, Texas' annual total employment growth rate averaged 3.74%. It averaged 2.26% during the 1980s, 2.71% during the 1990s, 1.94% in the 2000s, and 2.35% thus far this decade (2010 to 2015).
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 6.
Figure 6 compares the decade average growth rates for Texas noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for California and the nation. As the chart reveals, Texas' average annual total employment growth exceeded California's average during the 1970s (3.74% vs. 3.29%), trailed California's average in the 1980s (2.26% vs. 2.81%), outperformed California's average throughout the 1990s (2.71% vs. 1.40%), registered above California's average throughout the 2000s (1.94% vs. 0.56%), and recorded above California's average over the 6 year period of the last decade, 2010-2015 (2.35% vs. 2.17%).
Finally, relative to nationwide total employment growth trends, Texas outgained the nation throughout the 1970s (3.74% vs. 2.21%), surpassed the nation throughout the 1980s (2.26% vs. 1.88%), led the nation throughout the 1990s (2.71% vs. 1.73%), outperformed the nation during the 2000s (1.94% vs. 0.77%), and recorded above the nation over 2010-2015 (2.35% vs. 1.48%).
   
 
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change
 
 
 
2.62
3.74
2.26
2.71
1.94
2.35
2.35
 
2.04
3.29
2.81
1.40
0.56
2.17
2.94
 
1.63
2.21
1.88
1.73
0.77
1.48
2.16
 
   
Job Ratios (Employment/Population): 1969-2015
Job Ratios (Employment/Population): 1969-2015
Figure 7.
The job ratios shown in Figure 7 for Texas, California and the nation not only portray a number of important trends, they also serves as a thumbnail guide to evaluating an economy's capacity to generate enough jobs fast enough to absorb the increasing number of workers attendant to a growing population. The job ratio is the number of full-time and part-time jobs by place of work, divided by population.
Nationally, the job ratio rose from 0.45 to 0.59 between 1969 and 2015. Texas' job ratio registered 0.45 in 1969, and 0.60 in 2015. Underlying the rising job ratio over the past several decades have been the increases in the labor force participation rates, with the number and proportion of women in the labor market playing a leading role.
An assortment of other factors can contribute to regional differences in the job ratio. They include differences in the proportion of elderly and retirees who no longer work and participate in the labor force, differences in the number and proportion of part-time vs. full-time workers, differences in industry composition, and differences in age and sex distribution and degree of urbanization. Also, a disproportionate number of workers commuting to work outside a state tends to lower its local state job ratio, while a net inflow of workers commuting to work inside the state tends to augment its local state job ratio.
Avoid interpreting the job ratio as the fraction (or percent) of the local population employed. This interpretation should only apply to the "employment-population ratio" statistic compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from the Current Population Survey (CPS).
Job Ratios (Employment/Population)
as a Percent of the U.S. Average:
1969-2015
Job Ratios (Employment/Population)
as a Percent of the U.S. Average:
1969-2015
Figure 8.
To highlight trends in a local job ratio relative to nationwide trends, Figure 8 tracks Texas', California's, and the United States' job ratio as a percent of the national job ratio over 1969-2015.
   
 
Texas:
Total Employment, 1969-2015
 
1969
 
5,005,193
100.0
N
5.50
0.45
100.18
5
1970
 
5,045,435
100.8
0.80
5.53
0.45
100.25
5
1971
 
5,123,138
102.4
1.54
5.59
0.45
100.52
4
1972
 
5,333,823
106.6
4.11
5.66
0.45
100.65
3
1973
 
5,608,047
112.0
5.14
5.70
0.47
100.19
3
1974
 
5,822,056
116.3
3.82
5.82
0.47
101.13
3
1975
 
5,938,330
118.6
2.00
6.00
0.47
102.93
3
1976
 
6,206,757
124.0
4.52
6.11
0.48
103.01
3
1977
 
6,520,814
130.3
5.06
6.21
0.49
103.42
3
1978
 
6,900,142
137.9
5.82
6.29
0.51
103.51
3
1979
 
7,214,707
144.1
4.56
6.38
0.52
103.11
3
1980
 
7,495,945
149.8
3.90
6.58
0.52
104.22
3
1981
 
7,900,274
157.8
5.39
6.87
0.54
106.98
3
1982
 
8,074,282
161.3
2.20
7.07
0.53
106.87
3
1983
 
8,064,275
161.1
-0.12
6.97
0.51
103.50
3
1984
 
8,433,673
168.5
4.58
7.00
0.53
103.09
3
1985
 
8,673,542
173.3
2.84
7.01
0.53
102.44
3
1986
 
8,514,204
170.1
-1.84
6.74
0.51
97.80
3
1987
 
8,723,023
174.3
2.45
6.73
0.52
98.15
3
1988
 
8,880,181
177.4
1.80
6.65
0.53
97.53
3
1989
 
9,005,310
179.9
1.41
6.61
0.54
97.12
3
1990
 
9,242,899
184.7
2.64
6.68
0.54
97.79
3
1991
 
9,403,936
187.9
1.74
6.83
0.54
99.37
3
1992
 
9,482,932
189.5
0.84
6.86
0.53
99.13
2
1993
 
9,780,517
195.4
3.14
6.95
0.54
99.43
2
1994
 
10,098,087
201.8
3.25
7.00
0.54
99.26
2
1995
 
10,439,859
208.6
3.38
7.06
0.55
99.13
2
1996
 
10,737,590
214.5
2.85
7.11
0.56
99.01
2
1997
 
11,165,358
223.1
3.98
7.22
0.57
99.79
2
1998
 
11,541,074
230.6
3.37
7.28
0.57
99.66
2
1999
 
11,763,951
235.0
1.93
7.28
0.57
98.85
2
2000
 
12,138,877
242.5
3.19
7.34
0.58
98.89
2
2001
 
12,284,480
245.4
1.20
7.42
0.58
99.20
2
2002
 
12,295,391
245.7
0.09
7.44
0.57
98.72
2
2003
 
12,382,187
247.4
0.71
7.46
0.56
98.21
2
2004
 
12,600,407
251.7
1.76
7.45
0.56
97.47
2
2005
 
13,018,790
260.1
3.32
7.54
0.57
97.88
2
2006
 
13,511,063
269.9
3.78
7.67
0.58
97.99
2
2007
 
14,034,150
280.4
3.87
7.80
0.59
98.61
2
2008
 
14,397,682
287.7
2.59
8.01
0.59
100.26
2
2009
 
14,243,397
284.6
-1.07
8.17
0.57
101.11
2
2010
 
14,272,917
285.2
0.21
8.25
0.57
101.08
2
2011
 
14,697,978
293.7
2.98
8.34
0.57
101.31
2
2012
 
15,105,526
301.8
2.77
8.43
0.58
101.55
2
2013
 
15,536,503
310.4
2.85
8.52
0.59
101.70
2
2014
 
15,991,611
319.5
2.93
8.59
0.59
101.54
2
2015
 
16,367,980
327.0
2.35
8.61
0.60
100.70
2
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2016
REAP_PI_SA1400_1000_PSN
 
   
   
 
California:
Total Employment, 1969-2015
 
1969
 
9,032,738
100.0
N
9.92
0.46
101.31
1
1970
 
9,056,897
100.3
0.27
9.92
0.45
100.99
1
1971
 
9,036,074
100.0
-0.23
9.87
0.44
100.30
1
1972
 
9,368,468
103.7
3.68
9.93
0.46
100.99
1
1973
 
9,843,939
109.0
5.08
10.00
0.47
101.29
1
1974
 
10,163,089
112.5
3.24
10.15
0.48
102.29
1
1975
 
10,286,346
113.9
1.21
10.40
0.48
104.05
1
1976
 
10,632,968
117.7
3.37
10.47
0.48
103.81
1
1977
 
11,119,255
123.1
4.57
10.59
0.50
104.08
1
1978
 
11,815,943
130.8
6.27
10.77
0.52
104.76
1
1979
 
12,460,727
138.0
5.46
11.01
0.54
106.35
1
1980
 
12,761,955
141.3
2.42
11.20
0.54
106.89
1
1981
 
12,934,962
143.2
1.36
11.26
0.53
106.35
1
1982
 
12,862,878
142.4
-0.56
11.27
0.52
105.16
1
1983
 
13,182,023
145.9
2.48
11.40
0.52
105.08
1
1984
 
13,796,978
152.7
4.67
11.45
0.53
104.45
1
1985
 
14,284,986
158.1
3.54
11.54
0.54
103.83
1
1986
 
14,709,923
162.9
2.97
11.65
0.54
103.25
1
1987
 
15,300,046
169.4
4.01
11.81
0.55
103.02
1
1988
 
16,021,802
177.4
4.72
12.00
0.56
103.04
1
1989
 
16,425,901
181.8
2.52
12.06
0.56
101.89
1
1990
 
16,834,515
186.4
2.49
12.17
0.56
101.40
1
1991
 
16,750,052
185.4
-0.50
12.17
0.55
101.06
1
1992
 
16,390,983
181.5
-2.14
11.86
0.53
98.24
1
1993
 
16,367,123
181.2
-0.15
11.63
0.52
96.63
1
1994
 
16,540,724
183.1
1.06
11.47
0.53
95.87
1
1995
 
16,939,791
187.5
2.41
11.45
0.53
96.21
1
1996
 
17,341,994
192.0
2.37
11.48
0.54
96.59
1
1997
 
17,667,115
195.6
1.87
11.43
0.54
95.95
1
1998
 
18,432,219
204.1
4.33
11.63
0.56
97.26
1
1999
 
18,855,775
208.7
2.30
11.67
0.56
97.23
1
2000
 
19,228,440
212.9
1.98
11.63
0.57
96.53
1
2001
 
19,340,737
214.1
0.58
11.68
0.56
96.57
1
2002
 
19,359,759
214.3
0.10
11.72
0.56
96.68
1
2003
 
19,487,064
215.7
0.66
11.74
0.55
96.59
1
2004
 
19,801,689
219.2
1.61
11.71
0.56
96.42
1
2005
 
20,147,365
223.0
1.75
11.68
0.56
96.30
1
2006
 
20,529,079
227.3
1.89
11.66
0.57
96.55
1
2007
 
20,922,301
231.6
1.92
11.63
0.58
96.65
1
2008
 
20,696,775
229.1
-1.08
11.52
0.57
95.71
1
2009
 
19,901,754
220.3
-3.84
11.42
0.54
94.80
1
2010
 
19,654,391
217.6
-1.24
11.36
0.53
94.12
1
2011
 
20,004,273
221.5
1.78
11.35
0.53
93.83
1
2012
 
20,680,886
229.0
3.38
11.55
0.54
95.32
1
2013
 
21,329,714
236.1
3.14
11.69
0.56
96.32
1
2014
 
21,980,332
243.3
3.05
11.81
0.57
97.06
1
2015
 
22,625,879
250.5
2.94
11.90
0.58
97.68
1
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2016
REAP_PI_SA1400_1000_PSN
 
   
   
 
United States:
Total Employment, 1969-2015
 
1969
 
91,053,200
100.0
N
0.45
1970
 
91,277,600
100.2
0.25
0.45
1971
 
91,581,400
100.6
0.33
0.44
1972
 
94,312,200
103.6
2.98
0.45
1973
 
98,427,500
108.1
4.36
0.47
1974
 
100,111,800
109.9
1.71
0.47
1975
 
98,900,600
108.6
-1.21
0.46
1976
 
101,591,200
111.6
2.72
0.47
1977
 
105,042,200
115.4
3.40
0.48
1978
 
109,686,600
120.5
4.42
0.49
1979
 
113,147,100
124.3
3.15
0.50
1980
 
113,983,200
125.2
0.74
0.50
1981
 
114,914,000
126.2
0.82
0.50
1982
 
114,163,300
125.4
-0.65
0.49
1983
 
115,645,700
127.0
1.30
0.49
1984
 
120,528,100
132.4
4.22
0.51
1985
 
123,796,700
136.0
2.71
0.52
1986
 
126,232,300
138.6
1.97
0.53
1987
 
129,548,400
142.3
2.63
0.53
1988
 
133,563,900
146.7
3.10
0.55
1989
 
136,177,800
149.6
1.96
0.55
1990
 
138,330,900
151.9
1.58
0.55
1991
 
137,612,800
151.1
-0.52
0.54
1992
 
138,166,100
151.7
0.40
0.54
1993
 
140,774,400
154.6
1.89
0.54
1994
 
144,196,600
158.4
2.43
0.55
1995
 
147,915,800
162.4
2.58
0.56
1996
 
151,056,200
165.9
2.12
0.56
1997
 
154,541,200
169.7
2.31
0.57
1998
 
158,481,200
174.1
2.55
0.57
1999
 
161,531,300
177.4
1.92
0.58
2000
 
165,370,800
181.6
2.38
0.59
2001
 
165,519,200
181.8
0.09
0.58
2002
 
165,159,100
181.4
-0.22
0.57
2003
 
166,026,500
182.3
0.53
0.57
2004
 
169,036,700
185.6
1.81
0.58
2005
 
172,557,400
189.5
2.08
0.58
2006
 
176,123,600
193.4
2.07
0.59
2007
 
179,885,700
197.6
2.14
0.60
2008
 
179,639,900
197.3
-0.14
0.59
2009
 
174,233,700
191.4
-3.01
0.57
2010
 
173,034,700
190.0
-0.69
0.56
2011
 
176,278,700
193.6
1.87
0.57
2012
 
179,081,700
196.7
1.59
0.57
2013
 
182,408,100
200.3
1.86
0.58
2014
 
186,168,100
204.5
2.06
0.58
2015
 
190,195,400
208.9
2.16
0.59
Source: Calculations by the United States Regional Economic Analysis Project (US-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2016
REAP_PI_SA1400_1000_PN
 
   
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