Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth Across States
Employment Growth by State
State vs Nationwide Average: 2008-2016 and 2016
Employment Growth by State
U.S.:
2008-2016 = 0.84%
2016 = 1.70%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of all 51 states over the year (2016) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2008-2016). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by State
State vs Nationwide Average: 2008-2016 and 2016
Employment Growth by State
U.S.:
2008-2016 = 0.84%
2016 = 1.70%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2008-2016), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2016).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term employment growth exceeded the nationwide average of 0.84%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.84% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the nationwide average (0.84%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 13 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2008-2016, while 38 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 17 states whose most recent (2016) employment growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (1.70%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 34 states whose employment growth over 2016 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2008-2016) and near-term (2016) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 0.84% over 2008-2016 and 1.70% over 2016:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are the nine states whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (0.84%) and near-term (1.70%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are the four states whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (0.84%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (1.70%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the eight states whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the nationwide average (0.84%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (1.70%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the thirty states whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (0.84%) and near-term (1.70%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(1.70%)
Above
(1.70%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.84%)
4
9
13
Below
(0.84%)
30
8
38
 
34
17
51
 
   
Leading States
2016 vs. 2008-2016 Averages
Leading States
U.S.:
2008-2016 = 0.84%
2016 = 1.70%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual employment growth both long-term (2008-2016 = 0.84%) as well as near-term (2016 = 1.70%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2008-2016 as noted in the table below.
Of the United States' 51 states, 9 (18%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping States
2016 vs. 2008-2016 Averages
Slipping States
U.S.:
2008-2016 = 0.84%
2016 = 1.70%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 4 United States states classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2008-2016 = 0.84%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2016 = 1.70%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2008-2016.
Only 4 ( 8%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining States
2016 vs. 2008-2016 Averages
Gaining States
U.S.:
2008-2016 = 0.84%
2016 = 1.70%
This figure shows the distribution of the 8 United States states classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2008-2016 = 0.84%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2016 = 1.70%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2008-2016.
Of the United States' 51 states, 16% (8) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging States
2016 vs. 2008-2016 Averages
Lagging States
U.S.:
2008-2016 = 0.84%
2016 = 1.70%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 30 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual employment growth both long-term (2008-2016 = 0.84%) as well as near-term (2016 = 1.70%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2008-2016.
59% of the United States' states, 30 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
United States
Employment Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2008-2016
 
2016
 
 
Leading States
 
7
1.22
 
8
2.49
23,265,312
 
4
1.41
 
11
2.15
3,650,873
 
5
1.31
 
16
1.72
889,431
 
8
1.19
 
3
2.97
11,708,333
 
11
0.96
 
9
2.44
5,980,009
 
6
1.29
 
15
1.86
4,720,200
 
12
0.92
 
12
2.14
2,694,346
 
3
1.57
 
1
3.25
1,927,802
 
10
1.05
 
6
2.60
4,311,279
Slipping States
 
9
1.15
 
21
1.53
12,291,926
 
1
2.11
 
51
-3.09
581,079
 
13
0.91
 
36
1.03
599,587
 
2
1.92
 
28
1.38
16,644,179
Gaining States
 
26
0.57
 
7
2.56
3,641,938
 
24
0.57
 
2
2.97
977,416
 
39
0.32
 
14
1.94
5,611,718
 
29
0.49
 
4
2.86
1,714,063
 
36
0.35
 
17
1.71
876,100
 
14
0.77
 
10
2.16
5,822,627
 
19
0.64
 
5
2.70
2,454,599
 
17
0.70
 
13
2.12
3,940,474
Lagging States
 
48
0.09
 
26
1.39
2,625,468
 
34
0.38
 
49
-1.14
456,457
 
38
0.33
 
31
1.32
1,632,609
 
43
0.26
 
43
0.56
2,302,300
 
21
0.62
 
32
1.30
576,620
 
22
0.62
 
25
1.41
914,407
 
37
0.35
 
39
0.93
7,824,152
 
33
0.40
 
20
1.60
3,858,235
 
31
0.44
 
41
0.77
2,076,231
 
32
0.43
 
45
0.37
1,918,877
 
35
0.38
 
34
1.14
2,501,444
 
15
0.77
 
47
-0.48
2,683,472
 
49
-0.02
 
33
1.25
827,579
 
18
0.68
 
19
1.60
3,662,827
 
28
0.54
 
24
1.41
3,719,410
 
40
0.32
 
38
0.94
1,584,421
 
47
0.23
 
22
1.49
3,713,460
 
25
0.57
 
30
1.34
669,432
 
16
0.72
 
40
0.85
1,315,711
 
27
0.55
 
18
1.70
5,396,080
 
50
-0.05
 
42
0.62
1,099,260
 
45
0.24
 
27
1.38
6,957,538
 
20
0.64
 
46
-0.38
2,278,741
 
30
0.48
 
35
1.07
7,598,537
 
42
0.27
 
37
1.01
633,662
 
44
0.26
 
44
0.55
435,513
 
23
0.58
 
23
1.46
5,136,439
 
51
-0.29
 
48
-1.06
892,900
 
41
0.27
 
29
1.34
3,676,786
 
46
0.23
 
50
-2.30
396,541
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.84
 
1.70
193,668,400
May 2018
REAP_PI_SA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
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