Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth Across States
Employment Growth by State
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2019 and 2019
Employment Growth by State
U.S.:
2010-2019 = 1.62%
2019 = 1.76%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of all 51 states over the year (2019) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2019). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by State
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2019 and 2019
Employment Growth by State
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2019 = 1.62%
2019 = 1.76%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2019), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2019).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term employment growth exceeded the nationwide average of 1.62%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.62% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the nationwide average (1.62%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 16 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2010-2019, while 35 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 17 states whose most recent (2019) employment growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (1.76%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 34 states whose employment growth over 2019 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2010-2019) and near-term (2019) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 1.62% over 2010-2019 and 1.76% over 2019:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are the fourteen states whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (1.62%) and near-term (1.76%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are the two states whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (1.62%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (1.76%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the three states whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the nationwide average (1.62%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (1.76%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the thirty-two states whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (1.62%) and near-term (1.76%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(1.76%)
Above
(1.76%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.62%)
2
14
16
Below
(1.62%)
32
3
35
 
34
17
51
 
   
Leading States
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Leading States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2019 = 1.62%
2019 = 1.76%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2019 = 1.62%) as well as near-term (2019 = 1.76%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2019 as noted in the table below.
Of the United States' 51 states, 14 (27%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping States
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Slipping States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2019 = 1.62%
2019 = 1.76%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 2 United States states classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2010-2019 = 1.62%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2019 = 1.76%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
Only 2 ( 4%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining States
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Gaining States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2019 = 1.62%
2019 = 1.76%
This figure shows the distribution of the 3 United States states classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2010-2019 = 1.62%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2019 = 1.76%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
Of the United States' 51 states, only 6% (3) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging States
2019 vs. 2010-2019 Averages
Lagging States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2019 = 1.62%
2019 = 1.76%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 32 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2019 = 1.62%) as well as near-term (2019 = 1.76%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2019.
63% of the United States' states, 32 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
United States
Employment Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2010-2019
 
2019
 
 
Leading States
 
7
2.10
 
1
3.00
3,969,347
 
6
2.18
 
10
2.14
24,602,061
 
5
2.25
 
6
2.45
3,949,744
 
1
2.72
 
5
2.47
12,857,048
 
9
2.04
 
11
2.13
6,418,752
 
11
1.99
 
2
3.00
1,071,664
 
4
2.33
 
3
2.93
1,902,080
 
16
1.73
 
9
2.18
6,188,601
 
13
1.82
 
15
1.93
2,619,624
 
8
2.06
 
14
1.94
2,901,536
 
15
1.79
 
12
2.12
4,205,777
 
3
2.41
 
7
2.38
18,024,338
 
2
2.68
 
4
2.85
2,127,017
 
10
2.00
 
8
2.31
4,647,252
Slipping States
 
12
1.84
 
19
1.70
4,936,751
 
14
1.82
 
24
1.49
586,904
Gaining States
 
49
0.54
 
17
1.79
1,130,618
 
22
1.29
 
16
1.81
5,407,314
 
46
0.64
 
13
2.05
412,765
Lagging States
 
33
0.99
 
21
1.64
2,735,740
 
50
0.39
 
37
1.05
459,788
 
41
0.82
 
42
0.98
1,673,743
 
48
0.60
 
48
0.65
2,331,726
 
19
1.45
 
22
1.58
606,694
 
18
1.49
 
43
0.98
923,009
 
25
1.17
 
50
0.53
932,230
 
37
0.87
 
39
1.04
7,962,884
 
21
1.30
 
32
1.17
4,006,907
 
45
0.67
 
46
0.85
2,093,635
 
43
0.71
 
40
1.03
1,945,791
 
32
1.02
 
35
1.09
2,572,457
 
39
0.82
 
49
0.64
2,745,180
 
44
0.68
 
28
1.35
856,302
 
23
1.25
 
26
1.40
3,803,930
 
20
1.36
 
38
1.04
5,772,831
 
28
1.10
 
33
1.14
3,819,497
 
42
0.81
 
41
0.98
1,617,430
 
40
0.82
 
31
1.21
3,821,914
 
26
1.16
 
20
1.65
695,247
 
35
0.94
 
44
0.95
1,342,465
 
34
0.98
 
25
1.41
904,939
 
24
1.22
 
23
1.56
5,635,957
 
17
1.60
 
18
1.76
12,873,579
 
31
1.02
 
36
1.08
7,142,330
 
36
0.90
 
34
1.13
2,336,794
 
30
1.04
 
27
1.39
7,873,779
 
27
1.11
 
29
1.31
656,527
 
29
1.04
 
30
1.26
617,232
 
47
0.63
 
47
0.73
441,120
 
51
-0.04
 
51
-0.25
895,190
 
38
0.86
 
45
0.87
3,753,460
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.62
 
1.76
203,809,500
April 2021
REAP_PI_SA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
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