Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth Across States
Employment Growth by State
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Employment Growth by State
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 1.54%
2017 = 1.43%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of all 51 states over the year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by State
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Employment Growth by State
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 1.54%
2017 = 1.43%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term employment growth exceeded the nationwide average of 1.54%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.54% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the nationwide average (1.54%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 17 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2010-2017, while 34 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 17 states whose most recent (2017) employment growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (1.43%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 34 states whose employment growth over 2017 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2010-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 1.54% over 2010-2017 and 1.43% over 2017:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are the sixteen states whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (1.54%) and near-term (1.43%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (1.54%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (1.43%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the nationwide average (1.54%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (1.43%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the thirty-three states whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (1.54%) and near-term (1.43%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(1.43%)
Above
(1.43%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.54%)
1
16
17
Below
(1.54%)
33
1
34
 
34
17
51
 
   
Leading States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Leading States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 1.54%
2017 = 1.43%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 1.54%) as well as near-term (2017 = 1.43%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017 as noted in the table below.
Of the United States' 51 states, 16 (31%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Slipping States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 1.54%
2017 = 1.43%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 1 United States state classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2010-2017 = 1.54%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2017 = 1.43%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Only 1 ( 2%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Gaining States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 1.54%
2017 = 1.43%
This figure shows the distribution of the 1 United States state classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2010-2017 = 1.54%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2017 = 1.43%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of the United States' 51 states, only 2% (1) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Lagging States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 1.54%
2017 = 1.43%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 33 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 1.54%) as well as near-term (2017 = 1.43%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
65% of the United States' states, 33 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
United States
Employment Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2010-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading States
 
11
1.82
 
4
2.22
3,727,687
 
4
2.20
 
11
1.79
23,584,800
 
5
2.13
 
6
2.14
3,743,025
 
2
2.42
 
8
2.05
11,912,889
 
10
1.87
 
9
1.90
6,083,808
 
14
1.64
 
3
2.69
1,002,052
 
9
1.89
 
17
1.43
4,777,678
 
7
2.04
 
1
2.95
1,775,729
 
17
1.57
 
15
1.44
12,436,400
 
16
1.60
 
13
1.55
5,919,928
 
13
1.69
 
5
2.20
2,501,057
 
8
1.89
 
10
1.83
2,749,060
 
15
1.61
 
16
1.44
4,003,653
 
3
2.25
 
12
1.73
16,962,938
 
1
2.49
 
2
2.82
1,987,836
 
12
1.81
 
7
2.12
4,401,372
Slipping States
 
6
2.08
 
50
-0.16
578,334
Gaining States
 
24
1.15
 
14
1.47
5,470,573
Lagging States
 
38
0.85
 
21
1.20
2,652,406
 
49
0.33
 
51
-0.65
454,094
 
41
0.77
 
39
0.75
1,640,722
 
46
0.66
 
42
0.59
2,314,217
 
20
1.33
 
32
0.92
584,066
 
18
1.54
 
34
0.89
899,124
 
21
1.33
 
29
0.98
921,881
 
35
0.93
 
36
0.85
7,864,869
 
22
1.26
 
22
1.18
3,892,885
 
44
0.70
 
48
0.19
2,070,488
 
43
0.74
 
45
0.34
1,923,407
 
29
1.02
 
33
0.91
2,520,748
 
39
0.81
 
46
0.29
2,697,447
 
47
0.54
 
27
1.06
835,702
 
23
1.21
 
25
1.12
3,697,398
 
19
1.42
 
20
1.24
5,646,377
 
25
1.15
 
18
1.35
3,751,766
 
40
0.80
 
40
0.67
1,590,823
 
42
0.75
 
30
0.97
3,738,168
 
27
1.10
 
19
1.25
675,904
 
33
0.95
 
43
0.56
1,319,214
 
36
0.92
 
24
1.12
883,304
 
50
0.30
 
44
0.50
1,097,872
 
30
1.01
 
31
0.95
6,995,045
 
34
0.94
 
38
0.75
2,302,152
 
32
0.99
 
23
1.16
7,685,285
 
28
1.05
 
28
1.05
639,149
 
31
1.01
 
37
0.81
602,932
 
45
0.67
 
41
0.62
436,750
 
26
1.12
 
26
1.10
5,200,373
 
51
-0.14
 
47
0.21
888,984
 
37
0.87
 
35
0.86
3,691,630
 
48
0.35
 
49
0.07
398,199
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.54
 
1.43
196,132,200
May 2019
REAP_PI_SA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
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