Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth Across States
Employment Growth by State
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Employment Growth by State
U.S.:
2010-2020 = 0.88%
2020 = -5.39%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of all 51 states over the year (2020) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2020). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by State
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Employment Growth by State
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2020 = 0.88%
2020 = -5.39%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2020), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2020).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term employment growth exceeded the nationwide average of 0.88%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.88% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the nationwide average (0.88%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 16 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2010-2020, while 35 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 33 states whose most recent (2020) employment growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (-5.39%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 18 states whose employment growth over 2020 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2010-2020) and near-term (2020) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 0.88% over 2010-2020 and -5.39% over 2020:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are the thirteen states whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (0.88%) and near-term (-5.39%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are the three states whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (0.88%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (-5.39%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the twenty states whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the nationwide average (0.88%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-5.39%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the fifteen states whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (0.88%) and near-term (-5.39%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-5.39%)
Above
(-5.39%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.88%)
3
13
16
Below
(0.88%)
15
20
35
 
18
33
51
 
   
Leading States
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Leading States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2020 = 0.88%
2020 = -5.39%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2020 = 0.88%) as well as near-term (2020 = -5.39%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020 as noted in the table below.
Of the United States' 51 states, 13 (25%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping States
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Slipping States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2020 = 0.88%
2020 = -5.39%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 3 United States states classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2010-2020 = 0.88%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2020 = -5.39%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
Only 3 ( 6%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining States
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Gaining States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2020 = 0.88%
2020 = -5.39%
This figure shows the distribution of the 20 United States states classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2010-2020 = 0.88%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2020 = -5.39%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
Of the United States' 51 states, 39% (20) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging States
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Lagging States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2020 = 0.88%
2020 = -5.39%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 15 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2020 = 0.88%) as well as near-term (2020 = -5.39%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
29% of the United States' states, 15 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any state name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
United States
Employment Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2010-2020
 
2020
 
 
Leading States
 
5
1.57
 
3
-2.63
3,826,162
 
6
1.55
 
13
-4.03
3,737,075
 
2
1.96
 
25
-4.80
12,148,603
 
7
1.41
 
20
-4.58
6,104,727
 
4
1.65
 
1
-1.07
1,052,254
 
13
1.16
 
12
-3.93
5,908,402
 
14
1.08
 
32
-5.37
550,696
 
15
1.06
 
24
-4.78
2,451,970
 
8
1.39
 
22
-4.63
2,749,547
 
11
1.21
 
8
-3.63
4,017,452
 
3
1.75
 
17
-4.16
17,158,640
 
1
2.23
 
2
-1.10
2,079,706
 
9
1.30
 
19
-4.52
4,385,827
Slipping States
 
10
1.29
 
40
-6.12
22,743,902
 
16
0.90
 
44
-7.20
4,522,091
 
12
1.21
 
49
-9.10
1,713,047
Gaining States
 
25
0.49
 
10
-3.70
2,612,469
 
29
0.39
 
7
-3.36
1,608,843
 
17
0.77
 
33
-5.38
570,469
 
20
0.68
 
21
-4.61
3,788,622
 
41
0.14
 
15
-4.08
1,987,117
 
40
0.20
 
11
-3.84
1,851,247
 
28
0.42
 
23
-4.69
2,430,210
 
44
0.03
 
26
-4.87
801,781
 
34
0.31
 
16
-4.08
1,542,209
 
36
0.28
 
14
-4.06
3,626,303
 
19
0.70
 
4
-2.66
668,310
 
26
0.46
 
6
-3.25
1,285,838
 
35
0.29
 
27
-4.95
846,181
 
32
0.37
 
29
-5.17
6,706,071
 
30
0.38
 
9
-3.65
2,225,399
 
22
0.61
 
5
-2.66
594,556
 
21
0.65
 
18
-4.25
5,100,799
 
51
-0.65
 
30
-5.21
835,410
 
39
0.25
 
28
-4.99
3,533,538
 
45
-0.01
 
31
-5.35
386,291
Lagging States
 
50
-0.32
 
41
-6.33
425,953
 
46
-0.12
 
36
-5.92
2,162,427
 
18
0.74
 
38
-5.97
860,807
 
48
-0.22
 
51
-12.18
802,462
 
42
0.13
 
39
-5.99
7,388,506
 
43
0.04
 
43
-6.81
2,534,808
 
24
0.49
 
34
-5.52
3,536,398
 
27
0.43
 
48
-7.83
5,266,334
 
31
0.37
 
37
-5.96
3,558,042
 
33
0.34
 
45
-7.25
5,166,206
 
47
-0.13
 
35
-5.57
1,054,758
 
23
0.53
 
50
-9.11
11,581,930
 
38
0.25
 
42
-6.34
7,281,565
 
37
0.25
 
47
-7.44
602,589
 
49
-0.24
 
46
-7.30
402,251
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.88
 
-5.39
190,776,800
March 2022
REAP_PI_SA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
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