Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 2.84%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real local government earnings growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real local government earnings growth of all 51 states over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Page 2 of 9
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 2.84%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real local government earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real local government earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term real local government earnings growth exceeded the nationwide average of 2.47%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.47% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate trailed the nationwide average (2.47%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 25 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2010-2022, while 26 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 29 states whose most recent (2022) real local government earnings growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (2.84%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 22 states whose real local government earnings growth over 2022 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 2.47% over 2010-2022 and 2.84% over 2022:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are states whose average annual real local government earnings growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (2.47%) and near-term (2.84%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (2.47%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (2.84%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate fell below the nationwide average (2.47%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.84%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are states whose average annual real local government earnings growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (2.47%) and near-term (2.84%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.84%)
Above
(2.84%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.47%)
9
16
25
Below
(2.47%)
13
13
26
 
22
29
51
 
   
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Leading States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 2.84%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual real local government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.47%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.84%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of the United States' 51 states, 16 (31%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Page 4 of 9
Slipping States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping States
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 2.84%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 9 United States states classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2010-2022 = 2.47%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2022 = 2.84%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 9 (18%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Page 5 of 9
Gaining States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 2.84%
This figure shows the distribution of the 13 United States states classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2010-2022 = 2.47%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2022 = 2.84%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of the United States' 51 states, 25% (13) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Page 6 of 9
Lagging States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 2.84%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 13 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual real local government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.47%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.84%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
25% of the United States' states, 13 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Page 7 of 9
   
 
United States
Real* Local Government Earnings Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading States
 
7
3.40
 
5
4.74
20,650,771
 
12
3.19
 
17
3.56
2,561,280
 
6
3.47
 
13
4.12
5,218,392
 
19
2.76
 
20
3.29
11,411,170
 
8
3.36
 
27
2.96
27,021,152
 
13
3.13
 
25
3.01
3,172,132
 
15
3.03
 
28
2.91
7,757,695
 
18
2.80
 
1
7.05
33,375,811
 
2
4.57
 
22
3.23
2,790,856
 
14
3.09
 
11
4.46
13,307,839
 
1
4.73
 
12
4.20
21,167,229
 
9
3.36
 
19
3.31
2,768,278
 
21
2.73
 
23
3.10
19,497,397
 
4
3.78
 
6
4.71
8,634,603
 
23
2.61
 
7
4.70
28,845,330
 
3
4.21
 
3
5.45
35,884,138
Slipping States
 
16
2.92
 
38
2.26
198,533,079
 
5
3.69
 
44
1.71
5,289,593
 
11
3.22
 
51
-1.42
1,974,366
 
25
2.50
 
39
2.24
20,466,916
 
17
2.88
 
50
0.30
123,265,909
 
20
2.73
 
33
2.63
15,991,345
 
10
3.24
 
30
2.76
95,850,342
 
22
2.72
 
42
1.88
2,104,813
 
24
2.53
 
36
2.34
3,350,338
Gaining States
 
32
2.14
 
9
4.57
13,958,901
 
34
2.05
 
24
3.07
21,324,701
 
27
2.38
 
21
3.24
6,738,283
 
35
2.01
 
8
4.66
59,334,386
 
28
2.38
 
14
4.10
29,842,143
 
41
1.73
 
16
3.84
16,767,447
 
26
2.45
 
4
4.96
4,038,184
 
29
2.22
 
18
3.40
22,768,916
 
51
0.41
 
15
3.98
25,117,330
 
39
1.88
 
29
2.84
8,638,193
 
31
2.15
 
10
4.53
9,840,354
 
36
1.96
 
2
6.73
6,900,875
 
44
1.63
 
26
2.99
2,997,501
Lagging States
 
33
2.08
 
43
1.74
3,332,123
 
46
1.47
 
41
1.96
12,812,712
 
42
1.69
 
37
2.31
50,112,749
 
30
2.15
 
35
2.38
10,312,695
 
43
1.64
 
40
2.10
10,433,129
 
48
1.31
 
47
1.47
13,181,267
 
45
1.61
 
45
1.70
18,007,083
 
40
1.88
 
46
1.54
4,193,184
 
47
1.35
 
32
2.67
37,578,168
 
37
1.93
 
34
2.48
39,176,606
 
50
1.16
 
48
1.26
36,913,554
 
38
1.90
 
31
2.67
4,183,325
 
49
1.22
 
49
1.18
19,823,417
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.47
 
2.84
1,199,218,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_SA1600N_620320_LSGL
 
   
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