Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Manufacturing Earnings Growth
Across States
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2023 and 2023
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
U.S.:
2010-2023 = 3.54%
2023 = 5.12%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real manufacturing earnings growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real manufacturing earnings growth of all 51 states over the latest available year (2023) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2023). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2023 and 2023
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
U.S.:
2010-2023 = 3.54%
2023 = 5.12%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2023), and the horizontal axis representing the real manufacturing earnings growth rate for the near-term (2023).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term real manufacturing earnings growth exceeded the nationwide average of 3.54%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 3.54% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate trailed the nationwide average (3.54%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 22 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2010-2023, while 25 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 21 states whose most recent (2023) real manufacturing earnings growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (5.12%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 26 states whose real manufacturing earnings growth over 2023 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2010-2023) and near-term (2023) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 3.54% over 2010-2023 and 5.12% over 2023:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are states whose average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (3.54%) and near-term (5.12%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (3.54%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (5.12%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate fell below the nationwide average (3.54%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (5.12%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are states whose average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (3.54%) and near-term (5.12%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(5.12%)
Above
(5.12%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(3.54%)
10
12
22
Below
(3.54%)
16
9
25
 
26
21
47
 
   
Leading States
2023 vs. 2010-2023 Averages
Leading States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2023 = 3.54%
2023 = 5.12%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual real manufacturing earnings growth both long-term (2010-2023 = 3.54%) as well as near-term (2023 = 5.12%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2023.
Of the United States' 51 states, 12 (24%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping States
2023 vs. 2010-2023 Averages
Slipping States
U.S.:
2010-2023 = 3.54%
2023 = 5.12%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 10 United States states classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2010-2023 = 3.54%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2023 = 5.12%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2023.
Observe that 10 (20%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining States
2023 vs. 2010-2023 Averages
Gaining States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2023 = 3.54%
2023 = 5.12%
This figure shows the distribution of the 9 United States states classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2010-2023 = 3.54%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2023 = 5.12%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2023.
Of the United States' 51 states, 18% (9) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging States
2023 vs. 2010-2023 Averages
Lagging States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2023 = 3.54%
2023 = 5.12%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 16 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual real manufacturing earnings growth both long-term (2010-2023 = 3.54%) as well as near-term (2023 = 5.12%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2023.
31% of the United States' states, 16 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
United States
Real* Manufacturing Earnings Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2010-2023
 
2023
 
 
Leading States
 
16
4.27
 
10
7.40
25,716,419
 
14
4.36
 
22
5.56
205,201,351
 
6
5.22
 
8
7.46
44,375,492
 
15
4.31
 
12
7.19
40,433,085
 
4
5.64
 
9
7.44
7,294,088
 
11
4.56
 
23
5.38
23,639,460
 
12
4.46
 
17
6.36
24,016,461
 
13
4.42
 
16
6.37
62,842,343
 
5
5.39
 
2
9.75
2,843,900
 
9
4.72
 
5
7.81
24,616,057
 
20
4.18
 
6
7.66
115,707,303
 
8
5.18
 
15
6.69
14,357,041
Slipping States
 
10
4.57
 
27
4.79
22,413,734
 
17
4.26
 
43
2.71
17,469,958
 
21
4.09
 
46
1.74
53,143,482
 
22
3.76
 
39
3.85
34,831,499
 
7
5.21
 
35
3.97
1,935,134
 
3
5.82
 
36
3.97
11,062,749
 
1
6.91
 
41
3.25
6,502,718
 
18
4.22
 
49
-0.62
20,929,004
 
2
6.35
 
24
5.02
4,299,880
 
19
4.19
 
25
4.90
35,227,825
Gaining States
 
44
1.73
 
3
9.10
2,564,652
 
24
3.36
 
20
5.72
16,175,245
 
35
2.77
 
11
7.20
16,444,285
 
37
2.65
 
13
7.00
13,839,885
 
23
3.42
 
14
6.87
27,738,083
 
29
3.15
 
18
6.06
7,887,933
 
36
2.69
 
4
8.88
12,924,035
 
32
3.03
 
19
5.90
23,536,781
 
27
3.25
 
7
7.48
32,596,264
Lagging States
 
26
3.26
 
34
4.00
12,505,458
 
47
-1.03
 
31
4.26
20,492,684
 
30
3.12
 
40
3.63
65,800,327
 
34
2.90
 
42
2.73
4,980,029
 
43
1.80
 
47
0.39
30,850,577
 
25
3.32
 
45
2.03
11,602,034
 
41
2.17
 
29
4.56
33,661,388
 
40
2.39
 
38
3.88
2,561,943
 
45
1.69
 
44
2.40
44,963,974
 
33
2.97
 
37
3.95
43,401,359
 
28
3.22
 
28
4.60
66,522,786
 
38
2.65
 
33
4.10
56,719,962
 
39
2.47
 
26
4.82
3,752,398
 
46
1.32
 
48
-0.53
2,498,784
 
42
2.09
 
30
4.36
4,202,634
 
31
3.09
 
32
4.13
43,533,675
Undefined/Suppressed States
 
U
U
 
1
13.40
1,304,457
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
21
5.65
1,044,370
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.54
 
5.12
1,404,319,319
April 2024
REAP_PI_SA1600N_610500_LSGL
 
   
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