Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Federal Civilian Earnings Growth
Across States
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.98%
2022 = 3.80%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real federal civilian earnings growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real federal civilian earnings growth of all 51 states over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.98%
2022 = 3.80%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real federal civilian earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term real federal civilian earnings growth exceeded the nationwide average of 2.98%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.98% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate trailed the nationwide average (2.98%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 23 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2010-2022, while 28 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 29 states whose most recent (2022) real federal civilian earnings growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (3.80%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 22 states whose real federal civilian earnings growth over 2022 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 2.98% over 2010-2022 and 3.80% over 2022:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are states whose average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (2.98%) and near-term (3.80%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (2.98%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (3.80%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate fell below the nationwide average (2.98%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.80%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are states whose average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (2.98%) and near-term (3.80%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.80%)
Above
(3.80%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.98%)
7
16
23
Below
(2.98%)
15
13
28
 
22
29
51
 
   
Leading States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.98%
2022 = 3.80%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual real federal civilian earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.98%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.80%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of the United States' 51 states, 16 (31%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping States
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.98%
2022 = 3.80%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 7 United States states classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2010-2022 = 2.98%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2022 = 3.80%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 7 (14%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.98%
2022 = 3.80%
This figure shows the distribution of the 13 United States states classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2010-2022 = 2.98%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2022 = 3.80%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of the United States' 51 states, 25% (13) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 2.98%
2022 = 3.80%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 15 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual real federal civilian earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.98%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.80%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
29% of the United States' states, 15 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
United States
Real* Federal Civilian Earnings Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading States
 
21
3.09
 
24
4.24
7,452,709
 
10
3.43
 
2
9.04
750,948
 
6
3.68
 
15
4.76
18,945,143
 
23
2.99
 
9
5.19
1,569,259
 
7
3.61
 
10
5.17
2,067,124
 
2
3.95
 
7
5.37
32,112,599
 
1
4.02
 
3
7.64
2,580,196
 
14
3.37
 
1
9.56
1,117,588
 
3
3.92
 
17
4.46
9,034,290
 
22
3.01
 
23
4.27
5,902,983
 
16
3.19
 
20
4.39
1,546,083
 
4
3.75
 
18
4.42
4,199,421
 
11
3.42
 
5
5.58
6,938,978
 
13
3.37
 
29
4.07
4,491,607
 
5
3.70
 
14
4.86
885,693
 
8
3.48
 
25
4.20
31,559,317
Slipping States
 
20
3.09
 
39
3.23
7,289,664
 
19
3.09
 
37
3.46
34,627,542
 
15
3.37
 
36
3.50
4,490,326
 
17
3.14
 
43
2.92
1,940,440
 
9
3.44
 
38
3.38
27,231,633
 
12
3.42
 
45
2.77
10,090,210
 
18
3.13
 
42
2.93
3,193,830
Gaining States
 
50
1.86
 
27
4.10
2,366,448
 
41
2.25
 
28
4.10
2,287,050
 
47
1.95
 
26
4.10
10,252,959
 
29
2.80
 
11
5.06
4,652,603
 
40
2.28
 
16
4.68
1,924,064
 
33
2.63
 
4
5.92
2,936,020
 
27
2.88
 
22
4.31
6,786,044
 
37
2.44
 
6
5.56
4,013,682
 
34
2.53
 
12
5.06
1,564,223
 
25
2.89
 
19
4.42
10,306,278
 
43
2.14
 
21
4.37
12,445,627
 
30
2.76
 
13
4.90
3,296,780
 
32
2.72
 
8
5.32
862,557
Lagging States
 
31
2.72
 
44
2.91
7,400,677
 
48
1.91
 
40
3.17
1,970,007
 
26
2.88
 
51
1.76
36,628,252
 
24
2.93
 
46
2.77
13,510,334
 
49
1.88
 
41
3.12
3,915,721
 
42
2.18
 
49
2.52
3,742,887
 
46
1.96
 
30
3.79
6,228,565
 
38
2.36
 
35
3.51
2,976,738
 
39
2.29
 
50
1.94
6,893,129
 
51
1.06
 
33
3.70
6,574,849
 
44
2.14
 
32
3.72
3,750,784
 
45
2.10
 
47
2.76
14,661,742
 
35
2.53
 
31
3.79
1,015,879
 
36
2.49
 
48
2.58
3,599,740
 
28
2.87
 
34
3.64
1,259,778
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.98
 
3.80
397,841,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_SA1600N_620100_LSGL
 
   
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