Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Federal Civilian Earnings Growth
Across States
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2018 and 2018
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
U.S.:
2010-2018 = 2.79%
2018 = 3.93%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real federal civilian earnings growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real federal civilian earnings growth of all 51 states over the latest available year (2018) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2018). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2018 and 2018
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
U.S.:
2010-2018 = 2.79%
2018 = 3.93%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2018), and the horizontal axis representing the real federal civilian earnings growth rate for the near-term (2018).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term real federal civilian earnings growth exceeded the nationwide average of 2.79%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.79% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate trailed the nationwide average (2.79%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 19 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2010-2018, while 32 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 25 states whose most recent (2018) real federal civilian earnings growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (3.93%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 26 states whose real federal civilian earnings growth over 2018 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2010-2018) and near-term (2018) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 2.79% over 2010-2018 and 3.93% over 2018:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are states whose average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (2.79%) and near-term (3.93%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (2.79%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (3.93%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate fell below the nationwide average (2.79%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.93%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are states whose average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (2.79%) and near-term (3.93%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.93%)
Above
(3.93%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.79%)
9
10
19
Below
(2.79%)
17
15
32
 
26
25
51
 
   
Leading States
2018 vs. 2010-2018 Averages
Leading States
U.S.:
2010-2018 = 2.79%
2018 = 3.93%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual real federal civilian earnings growth both long-term (2010-2018 = 2.79%) as well as near-term (2018 = 3.93%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2018.
Of the United States' 51 states, 10 (20%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping States
2018 vs. 2010-2018 Averages
Slipping States
U.S.:
2010-2018 = 2.79%
2018 = 3.93%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 9 United States states classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2010-2018 = 2.79%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2018 = 3.93%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2018.
Observe that 9 (18%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining States
2018 vs. 2010-2018 Averages
Gaining States
U.S.:
2010-2018 = 2.79%
2018 = 3.93%
This figure shows the distribution of the 15 United States states classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2010-2018 = 2.79%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2018 = 3.93%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2018.
Of the United States' 51 states, 29% (15) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging States
2018 vs. 2010-2018 Averages
Lagging States
U.S.:
2010-2018 = 2.79%
2018 = 3.93%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 17 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual real federal civilian earnings growth both long-term (2010-2018 = 2.79%) as well as near-term (2018 = 3.93%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2018.
33% of the United States' states, 17 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
United States
Real* Federal Civilian Earnings Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2010-2018
 
2018
 
 
Leading States
 
19
2.86
 
4
5.38
6,334,116
 
14
3.08
 
16
4.32
30,659,199
 
18
2.87
 
13
4.57
6,475,417
 
12
3.18
 
9
4.87
1,727,154
 
10
3.24
 
3
5.57
2,063,728
 
2
3.70
 
23
4.01
7,598,279
 
6
3.39
 
7
4.93
3,515,088
 
8
3.32
 
6
4.94
23,542,799
 
1
4.23
 
2
5.88
802,299
 
4
3.57
 
22
4.02
27,734,949
Slipping States
 
13
3.17
 
28
3.91
33,553,290
 
7
3.35
 
42
3.13
15,934,316
 
9
3.27
 
36
3.52
3,901,342
 
3
3.62
 
37
3.49
26,745,775
 
11
3.23
 
32
3.82
1,728,920
 
15
3.05
 
50
2.02
1,346,755
 
16
3.01
 
30
3.90
5,852,035
 
17
2.91
 
33
3.77
3,778,271
 
5
3.52
 
29
3.91
8,902,268
Gaining States
 
50
1.19
 
18
4.29
2,074,055
 
40
1.94
 
21
4.06
2,037,523
 
27
2.56
 
5
5.22
1,343,453
 
29
2.49
 
11
4.64
4,058,300
 
41
1.90
 
19
4.22
1,701,088
 
39
1.96
 
8
4.88
3,368,153
 
38
1.97
 
10
4.70
3,501,023
 
42
1.89
 
25
3.95
6,078,280
 
23
2.65
 
1
6.83
921,710
 
35
2.22
 
17
4.30
13,631,230
 
25
2.63
 
20
4.21
8,992,099
 
34
2.26
 
24
4.00
3,201,113
 
22
2.66
 
14
4.39
2,713,339
 
31
2.36
 
15
4.32
2,856,796
 
33
2.26
 
12
4.62
744,880
Lagging States
 
32
2.36
 
48
2.08
6,440,869
 
47
1.59
 
49
2.06
1,775,766
 
24
2.64
 
46
2.67
613,680
 
28
2.53
 
26
3.92
11,629,662
 
44
1.64
 
39
3.36
9,236,963
 
36
2.15
 
31
3.88
2,537,806
 
49
1.50
 
51
1.74
3,521,208
 
45
1.61
 
41
3.31
5,587,650
 
21
2.70
 
38
3.40
5,966,014
 
43
1.88
 
47
2.38
2,601,696
 
37
2.13
 
27
3.91
1,367,083
 
51
0.35
 
44
2.89
5,921,835
 
48
1.54
 
45
2.75
3,272,863
 
30
2.47
 
40
3.33
914,168
 
20
2.71
 
34
3.70
5,104,120
 
46
1.60
 
35
3.60
10,899,676
 
26
2.58
 
43
3.12
1,097,899
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.79
 
3.93
347,908,000
November 2019
REAP_PI_SA1600N_620100_LSGL
 
   
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