Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Local Government Earnings Growth
Across States
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 3.07%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real local government earnings growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real local government earnings growth of all 51 states over the year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 3.07%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real local government earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the real local government earnings growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term real local government earnings growth exceeded the nationwide average of 2.20%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.20% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate trailed the nationwide average (2.20%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 25 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2010-2017, while 26 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 22 states whose most recent (2017) real local government earnings growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (3.07%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 29 states whose real local government earnings growth over 2017 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2010-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 2.20% over 2010-2017 and 3.07% over 2017:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are states whose average annual real local government earnings growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (2.20%) and near-term (3.07%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (2.20%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (3.07%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate fell below the nationwide average (2.20%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.07%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are states whose average annual real local government earnings growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (2.20%) and near-term (3.07%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.07%)
Above
(3.07%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.20%)
7
18
25
Below
(2.20%)
22
4
26
 
29
22
51
 
   
Leading States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Leading States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 3.07%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual real local government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 2.20%) as well as near-term (2017 = 3.07%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of the United States' 51 states, 18 (35%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Slipping States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 3.07%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 7 United States states classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2010-2017 = 2.20%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2017 = 3.07%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
Only 7 (14%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Gaining States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 3.07%
This figure shows the distribution of the 4 United States states classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2010-2017 = 2.20%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2017 = 3.07%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of the United States' 51 states, only 8% (4) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Lagging States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 3.07%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 22 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual real local government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 2.20%) as well as near-term (2017 = 3.07%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
43% of the United States' states, 22 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
United States
Real* Local Government Earnings Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2010-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading States
 
12
3.09
 
11
3.83
173,727,769
 
16
2.71
 
12
3.61
16,520,825
 
3
3.87
 
1
5.96
4,499,644
 
5
3.80
 
13
3.60
1,764,427
 
17
2.70
 
4
5.41
4,139,934
 
4
3.86
 
17
3.33
23,795,211
 
18
2.62
 
18
3.26
18,233,068
 
15
2.71
 
9
3.87
2,629,061
 
25
2.21
 
10
3.87
27,759,901
 
1
5.75
 
21
3.21
2,440,515
 
2
4.33
 
8
4.05
16,283,656
 
14
2.78
 
22
3.07
14,005,288
 
10
3.19
 
3
5.50
2,314,472
 
22
2.33
 
6
4.14
16,501,759
 
7
3.55
 
15
3.43
83,617,935
 
20
2.56
 
5
4.84
6,519,617
 
21
2.50
 
19
3.23
25,097,980
 
9
3.41
 
2
5.94
27,449,078
Slipping States
 
6
3.71
 
31
2.66
3,441,127
 
11
3.11
 
25
2.98
10,221,129
 
24
2.24
 
27
2.77
3,516,571
 
13
3.01
 
38
2.31
6,665,671
 
19
2.57
 
48
1.06
10,976,836
 
23
2.33
 
35
2.41
1,786,290
 
8
3.46
 
50
0.30
3,177,080
Gaining States
 
35
1.71
 
16
3.36
12,124,370
 
43
1.24
 
20
3.23
18,057,905
 
29
1.98
 
14
3.57
25,672,306
 
27
2.06
 
7
4.08
8,762,573
Lagging States
 
32
1.91
 
45
1.51
5,767,328
 
26
2.10
 
41
1.82
12,509,644
 
30
1.96
 
23
2.99
1,991,281
 
50
0.75
 
24
2.98
48,701,775
 
39
1.47
 
42
1.82
45,203,293
 
49
0.83
 
43
1.76
14,337,729
 
34
1.88
 
33
2.58
9,069,126
 
36
1.64
 
32
2.65
9,771,088
 
33
1.89
 
40
1.97
12,908,933
 
31
1.96
 
30
2.69
19,967,014
 
51
-0.18
 
37
2.37
23,474,594
 
40
1.40
 
46
1.33
7,566,757
 
41
1.40
 
34
2.48
16,301,232
 
38
1.53
 
29
2.72
3,710,581
 
47
1.01
 
39
2.14
34,163,141
 
48
0.92
 
49
0.53
5,770,612
 
28
2.02
 
28
2.73
100,504,395
 
37
1.56
 
26
2.88
34,513,842
 
44
1.21
 
36
2.40
34,903,337
 
42
1.34
 
44
1.66
2,701,699
 
45
1.10
 
51
-0.30
3,576,647
 
46
1.01
 
47
1.28
18,312,954
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.20
 
3.07
1,037,429,000
March 2019
REAP_PI_SA1600N_620320_LSGL
 
   
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