Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Manufacturing Employment Growth
Across States
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 0.64%
2022 = 3.63%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of manufacturing employment growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the manufacturing employment growth of all 51 states over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 0.64%
2022 = 3.63%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the manufacturing employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term manufacturing employment growth exceeded the nationwide average of 0.64%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.64% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate trailed the nationwide average (0.64%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 23 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2010-2022, while 24 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 22 states whose most recent (2022) manufacturing employment growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (3.63%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 25 states whose manufacturing employment growth over 2022 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 0.64% over 2010-2022 and 3.63% over 2022:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are states whose average annual manufacturing employment growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (0.64%) and near-term (3.63%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (0.64%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (3.63%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate fell below the nationwide average (0.64%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.63%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are states whose average annual manufacturing employment growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (0.64%) and near-term (3.63%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.63%)
Above
(3.63%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.64%)
10
13
23
Below
(0.64%)
15
9
24
 
25
22
47
 
   
Leading States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 0.64%
2022 = 3.63%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual manufacturing employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.64%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.63%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of the United States' 51 states, 13 (25%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping States
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 0.64%
2022 = 3.63%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 10 United States states classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2010-2022 = 0.64%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2022 = 3.63%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 10 (20%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 0.64%
2022 = 3.63%
This figure shows the distribution of the 9 United States states classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2010-2022 = 0.64%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2022 = 3.63%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of the United States' 51 states, 18% (9) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging States
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging States
white dot
U.S.:
2010-2022 = 0.64%
2022 = 3.63%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 15 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual manufacturing employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.64%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.63%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
29% of the United States' states, 15 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
United States
Manufacturing Employment Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading States
 
7
1.68
 
6
4.75
204,725
 
5
2.02
 
7
4.74
457,131
 
11
1.36
 
4
4.94
446,773
 
4
2.18
 
10
4.37
79,937
 
12
1.35
 
20
3.75
260,282
 
3
2.20
 
19
3.76
634,026
 
20
0.79
 
12
4.10
295,203
 
19
0.80
 
16
3.82
106,951
 
1
3.82
 
1
6.98
71,259
 
15
1.21
 
8
4.70
28,936
 
9
1.59
 
9
4.59
271,340
 
13
1.34
 
11
4.31
383,023
 
17
0.92
 
2
5.21
1,005,501
Slipping States
 
18
0.87
 
26
3.39
284,309
 
14
1.26
 
36
2.74
169,226
 
8
1.60
 
24
3.50
557,860
 
22
0.73
 
41
2.40
229,880
 
6
1.72
 
38
2.68
26,340
 
23
0.69
 
35
2.89
713,899
 
16
1.05
 
32
3.04
206,906
 
10
1.39
 
31
3.06
47,401
 
2
2.24
 
23
3.52
160,756
 
21
0.78
 
29
3.29
498,082
Gaining States
 
31
0.11
 
21
3.66
168,636
 
28
0.26
 
15
3.83
1,419,413
 
39
-0.26
 
3
5.01
27,851
 
32
0.10
 
5
4.89
175,340
 
37
-0.24
 
22
3.65
144,855
 
41
-0.35
 
14
3.96
266,311
 
43
-0.55
 
13
3.99
33,829
 
34
0.02
 
17
3.77
138,469
 
35
-0.09
 
18
3.77
593,364
Lagging States
 
45
-0.62
 
39
2.63
165,442
 
36
-0.09
 
40
2.56
588,841
 
29
0.25
 
46
1.15
59,146
 
40
-0.29
 
47
0.90
121,968
 
44
-0.58
 
42
2.27
251,159
 
24
0.58
 
27
3.38
337,869
 
25
0.47
 
33
3.02
154,424
 
30
0.16
 
37
2.68
74,062
 
47
-0.79
 
28
3.37
454,887
 
26
0.46
 
44
2.05
495,718
 
38
-0.25
 
34
2.95
42,341
 
42
-0.46
 
45
1.16
32,382
 
27
0.29
 
30
3.08
258,604
 
33
0.08
 
25
3.43
284,968
 
46
-0.65
 
43
2.25
48,883
Undefined/Suppressed States
 
U
U
 
48
-0.14
14,642
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
16,262
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.64
 
3.63
13,523,700
November 2023
REAP_PI_SA1500N_510500_LSGL
 
   
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