Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing State and Local Government Gross Domestic Product Growth
Across States
Real* State and Local Government
Gross Domestic Product Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Real* State and Local Government
Gross Domestic Product Growth
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 0.44%
2017 = 0.45%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real state and local government gross domestic product growth across all 51 states. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this United States Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real state and local government gross domestic product growth of all 51 states over the year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* State and Local Government
Gross Domestic Product Growth
State vs Nationwide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Real* State and Local Government
Gross Domestic Product Growth
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 0.44%
2017 = 0.45%
This figure displays the 51 states of the United States as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those states whose long-term real state and local government gross domestic product growth exceeded the nationwide average of 0.44%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.44% on the vertical axis. State whose long-term average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate trailed the nationwide average (0.44%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 8 states surpassed the nationwide average over 2010-2017, while 43 states fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 29 states whose most recent (2017) real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (0.45%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 22 states whose real state and local government gross domestic product growth over 2017 trailed the nationwide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 51 states corresponding with their long-term (2010-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective nationwide averages of 0.44% over 2010-2017 and 0.45% over 2017:
Leading states () (top-right quadrant)...are states whose average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate surpassed the nationwide average both long-term (0.44%) and near-term (0.45%).
Slipping states () (top-left quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate exceeded the nationwide average (0.44%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the the United States average (0.45%).
Gaining states () (bottom-right quadrant)...are states whose long-term average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate fell below the nationwide average (0.44%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (0.45%) nationwide.
Lagging states () (bottom-left quadrant)...are states whose average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate fell under the nationwide average both long-term (0.44%) and near-term (0.45%).
   
 
Summary of United States' 51 State Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(0.45%)
Above
(0.45%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.44%)
2
6
8
Below
(0.44%)
20
23
43
 
22
29
51
 
   
Leading States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Leading States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 0.44%
2017 = 0.45%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the United States states classified as Leading. These states surpassed the United States' average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 0.44%) as well as near-term (2017 = 0.45%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of the United States' 51 states, just 6 (12%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Slipping States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 0.44%
2017 = 0.45%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 2 United States states classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate outpaced the average nationwide (2010-2017 = 0.44%), while they trailed the nationwide average near-term (2017 = 0.45%). Again, each state is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate over 2010-2017.
Only 2 (4%) of the United States' 51 states are classified as Slipping (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Gaining States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 0.44%
2017 = 0.45%
This figure shows the distribution of the 23 United States states classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate posted below the average nationwide (2010-2017 = 0.44%), while they outpaced the United States' average near-term (2017 = 0.45%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of the United States' 51 states, 45% (23) are featured as Gaining (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging States
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Lagging States
U.S.:
2010-2017 = 0.44%
2017 = 0.45%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 20 United States states classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These states trailed the nationwide average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 0.44%) as well as near-term (2017 = 0.45%). Again, each state is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real state and local government gross domestic product growth rate over 2010-2017.
39% of the United States' states, 20 of 51, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those states ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
United States
Real* State and Local Government Gross Domestic Product Growth
State vs. Nationwide Average
 
2010-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading States
 
5
1.27
 
10
2.74
4,800
 
6
1.19
 
5
3.62
3,071
 
1
3.64
 
13
2.62
9,886
 
3
2.48
 
6
3.48
1,402
 
2
2.72
 
18
1.59
3,695
 
4
1.31
 
4
3.71
825
Slipping States
 
8
0.47
 
46
-2.52
5,192
 
7
1.00
 
47
-2.93
781
Gaining States
 
14
0.22
 
7
3.34
4,266
 
24
-0.23
 
15
1.92
2,239
 
11
0.34
 
8
3.10
3,749
 
26
-0.38
 
26
0.54
572
 
10
0.38
 
27
0.53
10,092
 
34
-1.13
 
17
1.73
7,590
 
29
-0.66
 
1
11.39
3,516
 
36
-1.27
 
19
1.39
3,936
 
27
-0.48
 
25
0.58
2,396
 
40
-1.70
 
28
0.48
6,642
 
38
-1.47
 
22
0.85
1,419
 
35
-1.18
 
29
0.47
2,542
 
23
-0.22
 
16
1.84
492
 
15
0.14
 
11
2.71
966
 
25
-0.35
 
14
1.96
2,458
 
32
-1.01
 
12
2.63
2,520
 
13
0.25
 
3
3.94
3,032
 
19
-0.13
 
9
2.85
499
 
47
-3.02
 
20
0.96
1,183
 
28
-0.54
 
21
0.94
15,490
 
16
0.00
 
24
0.72
7,547
 
44
-2.68
 
23
0.82
738
 
9
0.42
 
2
4.00
403
Lagging States
 
49
-3.52
 
51
-5.48
803
 
18
-0.09
 
43
-1.34
27,741
 
33
-1.08
 
39
-0.90
3,529
 
39
-1.68
 
30
0.44
543
 
48
-3.49
 
45
-1.73
1,158
 
37
-1.33
 
42
-1.29
2,793
 
46
-3.02
 
34
-0.41
563
 
12
0.31
 
32
-0.16
1,671
 
41
-1.76
 
37
-0.69
1,886
 
43
-2.37
 
48
-2.94
930
 
30
-0.69
 
38
-0.86
5,356
 
22
-0.22
 
44
-1.73
11,353
 
17
-0.06
 
41
-1.21
4,035
 
42
-1.89
 
33
-0.32
600
 
50
-3.68
 
31
0.02
1,032
 
20
-0.14
 
40
-0.94
4,000
 
31
-0.71
 
36
-0.57
1,423
 
45
-3.01
 
50
-3.74
185
 
21
-0.17
 
35
-0.47
19,015
 
51
-5.27
 
49
-3.25
366
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.44
 
0.45
310,997
May 2010
REAP_PI_SA1900N_520300_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2020. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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